The ruble is strengthening: is it worth running to exchange offices for dollars?

The Russian currency continues to strengthen rapidly: in morning trading on Tuesday, November 21, the value of the dollar fell below 88 rubles. Euro quotes also fell to about 96 rubles. The last time such a rise in the national currency exchange rate was recorded was in mid-summer. In this regard, MK turned to experts with the question: should interested citizens take this opportunity and urgently visit bank exchange offices to stock up on dollars and euros “on the cheap”.

Alexander SHNEIDERMAN, head of sales and customer support department at Alfa-Forex:

“You should never rush to buy currency at an exchanger on the spur of the moment. If you are interested in such operations in principle, then you need to do this regularly, taking advantage of the favorable exchange rate. Now is just such a moment: the dollar and euro have decreased in price temporarily, but I think this will not last long – until January, maximum. Moreover, the American currency may fall in price even more in the coming days – up to 85 rubles.

Therefore, if you want to protect the rubles you have from depreciation, then it is worth purchasing the currency. Preferably in equal shares – dollars, euros and Chinese yuan. This way you will be able to make a profit of more than 10% next year, because the dollar will certainly begin to rise again and may rise in price to 100 rubles or more in the spring of 2024.”

Artem TUZOV, Director of the Corporate Finance Department at IVA Partners:

“The dollar and euro have been “toxic” currencies for Russians since 2022. It’s definitely not worth buying these banknotes in large quantities. At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble cannot be called market-driven. For speculative operations, it is better to invest in assets such as gold and yuan. If the ruble begins to weaken, then the main profit can be earned on such exchange instruments.

In general, an attempt to speculate on the ruble exchange rate by non-professional investors (ordinary people) usually ends extremely negatively. It can be assumed that even now there will be no quick results from speculation. The point is to “insure” part of your savings against a fall in the exchange rate of the ruble against foreign currencies. By purchasing an extra thousand “green” cars, such an idea will most likely not come true, and may even bring financial losses.”

Alexey KRICHEVSKY, financial analyst, author of the economic telegram channel:

“Why do you need to urgently buy currency? If there is an urgent need for it, which in our time is caused only by trips abroad, that’s one conversation. But in this situation, tourists will still buy at the rate that is available. In order to try to earn a couple of tens of kopecks from a dollar, running away and dumping all the money into foreign currency is strange and illogical. When it comes to buying dollars for savings, you need to understand that this is a long game, and a ruble and a half won’t make much difference here. It is unlikely that in 5 years a person will blame himself for buying currency at 90 rather than 89 rubles.

So there is no need to throw a tantrum and create artificial excitement. Currency, to a certain extent, is a protection against devaluation and inflation, but we must not forget that the dollar is also depreciating. In order to make money on your savings, you can put them in a bank deposit, the savings for which now easily reach 15%. You can also buy bonds of domestic state-owned companies or large private enterprises – from among the systemically important ones. At current rates with their capitalization, you can easily earn up to 20% per annum.”

Georgy VASCHENKO, Deputy Director of the Analytical Department of Freedom Finance Global:

“For a Russian who does not intend to spend foreign currency abroad in the near future, buying dollars or euros is currently pointless. There are not many instruments that would generate income in foreign currency for a simple, unqualified investor – in fact, one not particularly liquid issue of bonds in yuan can bring much more tangible income. You can make money on currency without buying it – if you invest in derivatives market instruments or bonds, the denomination and coupons for which are tied to foreign currency notes.

Cash currency is now needed if you are planning a foreign trip to a country where MIR cards do not work. It is not safe to store non-cash currency on the stock exchange: in the event of sanctions, you can completely lose your capital. As a last resort, the currency can be kept in an account in a Russian bank.”

Andrey LOBODA, economist, director of communications at BitRiver:

“It’s time for Russians to end their colonial dependence on the dollar and the euro. The very fact of pumping added economic value from the ruble into foreign currency is not a very good idea. Unfortunately, for more than 30 years of development of modern Russia, we have lived under a policy of a weak ruble. The loss of the value of the national currency compared to other key reserve currencies is a significant factor that encouraged Russians to at least protect themselves from the depreciation of the ruble.

For six weeks in a row we have seen a serious correction in the dollar and euro. With a high probability, by the end of this week the dollar will approach the 84 ruble mark. But even at these values, I think it’s too early to buy “green”. The red price for the dollar is 45-50 rubles. Everything else is a premium for geo-economic risks. Ideally, with a strong ruble policy, Russian funds should become an instrument for saving and increasing the funds of Russians, as well as residents of the CIS. Then thoughts about buying the currencies of unfriendly countries will not arise.”