The ruble is sinking “with a smile”: the political consequences of the anti-record of the national currency

The dollar easily broke through the psychologically important milestone of one hundred dollars for one greenback, and most citizens of the Russian Federation absolutely do not care about this fact – at least in the version of Russia in which Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, lives (or rather, in the version of Russia that lives in the head of the parliamentarian): “I follow the ruble-dollar ratio based on my work. From the point of view of the majority of the population, do not care about this ratio. The situation is under state control…”

“I am a deputy from Chuvashia,” says Aksakov. – In the republic, enterprises are loaded, increasing production volumes. People get paid. The republic lives a full life, smiles on their faces, and there is no stress that the dollar exchange rate has approached 100 rubles.”

It is interesting: what kind of street scenes, according to Deputy Aksakov, should indicate that people have “stress” due to the psychological humiliation of the national currency – hand-wringing, hysterical sobbing, shouting “everything is lost, it’s time to drown”?

If we evaluate the level of stress precisely in such categories, then the venerable parliamentarian is right: nothing has been lost yet, a hundred rubles for a dollar is still not a thousand rubles for a dollar, as it was in the 90s.

But if the chairman of the Duma committee on the financial market seriously believes that the rapid weight loss of our national currency brings “smiles to the faces” of citizens, he should radically reconsider his views on the world. And here’s the right way to do it: let Anatoly Aksakov go to the store and get acquainted with the price tags there – preferably in dynamics.

I am sure that the Chuvash voters will tell him how much this or that vital product cost recently and how much it costs now. And I am sure that they will do it without any smiles on their faces.

Here is an assessment of the psychological climate in society recently given on social networks by the head of the VTsIOM sociological service, Valery Fedorov: “Conjuncture: everything is going well! Important: 1. The counteroffensive failed, the news from the front is good. 2. UAV raids are like bee stings, a part of everyday life that does not attract much attention. 3. What you should pay attention to: a powerful jump in inflation has begun. Soon it will affect the social mood – of course, negatively.

Point two of this prediction—about “bee stings”—seems to me overly optimistic. But his point three should be included in the column of those forecasts that have already come true. And here’s what else, in my opinion, is pulling down social well-being: the lack of clear explanations of what is happening with the ruble by the authorities or those “explanations” on their part that look like outright mockery or a scene from a variety show.

Another striking statement by Anatoly Aksakov regarding the anti-record of the ruble: “The country lives a normal life. I have never seen such a state of positive development in modern Russia after the Soviet Union. In this sense, the country is in a positive trend of its development.”

Against this background, the official commentary of the Central Bank looks somewhat more respectable. But “somewhat more respectable” is not a synonym for “respectable” in this case.

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin on the potential consequences of the fall of the ruble at the very end of last week: “Today we do not see any risks to financial stability.”

For today you do not see, but for tomorrow, maybe you see? Moreover, tomorrow has already arrived: these words were spoken at a time when the dollar exchange rate had not yet exceeded the bar of one hundred rubles.

The next question without a clear – or at least understandable to a person on the street – answer: can you prove that this risk does not really exist? If you can, why don’t you prove it? And if you can’t, then don’t be surprised that your assurances inspire about the same amount of confidence as, say, an announcement by an airplane pilot: one of our airliner’s wings has fallen off. But don’t worry! This will in no way affect the safety of the flight!

I understand that it is not very easy for the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. It is attacked not so much by journalists (in today’s Russia, in relation to the media, the term “fourth estate” has long been used solely as a mockery), but by competitors and opponents within the government.

A small, but quite a programmatic article by Dmitry Oreshkin, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation for Economics, this Monday: “The main source of the weakening of the ruble and accelerating inflation is a loose monetary policy. The Central Bank has all the necessary tools to normalize the situation in the near future…

The current exchange rate has significantly deviated from fundamental levels and is expected to normalize in the near future. A weak ruble complicates the restructuring of the economy and negatively affects the real incomes of the population. A strong ruble is in the interests of the Russian economy.”

I am translating from bureaucratic language into common language: the reasons for the humiliation of the ruble are the wrong actions of Nabiullina.

I do not presume to judge how much such an assessment corresponds to reality. It is possible that it does not correspond partially or even does not correspond completely. But here is what is beyond doubt in my eyes: if we talk about the government as a whole, then its behavior in the current situation with the ruble does not look convincing at all – and this is if you use the softest, even the softest terms that come to mind.