The ruble is looking for fair value – Kommersant FM

The Central Bank has been increasing foreign currency sales since September 14. Until September 22, approximately 20 billion rubles worth of yuan will enter the market every day. – 10 times more than the Central Bank sold before. Against this background, the Russian currency may strengthen significantly, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors note. The head of Sberbank, German Gref, for example, called the range of 80-85 rubles fair for the dollar. How achievable is this? And should we wait for stabilization? Ivan Khorushevsky sorted it out.

At the Eastern Economic Forum, officials talked a lot about the prospects for strengthening the national currency. But as soon as the congress ended, the dollar returned to its usual level of 95 rubles.

Now, following the verbal ones, the authorities will also try currency interventions in the market. BCS World of Investments expert Evgeniy Mironyuk considers this step the most powerful support for the Russian currency over the past month:

“Through a chain of arbitrage operations, the ruble will stabilize against all currency pairs. The start of the tax period on the 20th will also be important.

Exporters will begin to sell foreign currency in advance, thereby the ruble may strengthen, reaching 92.5 rubles. for a dollar.”

Approximately these values, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, should remain on the market for another two years. The department has published a new macro forecast, which suggests that the average dollar exchange rate will not fall below 90 rubles. until the end of 2024. This is the new reality.

However, German Gref said that the fair value of the American currency is at least 5 rubles. less. He even advised against keeping savings in dollars and euros, since fundamentally they should supposedly be much weaker. The director of the analytical department of the investment company Region, Valery Weisberg, chose whose forecast was closer to him:

“If we rely on changes in estimates of the current account surplus, then it really is not that large. That is, it is expanding, but within, roughly speaking, 10%. This may well indicate that the rate cannot move anywhere from current levels.”

In addition to the ruble exchange rate, the Ministry of Economic Development also predicted GDP indicators. It is expected that by the end of 2023 the economy should grow by almost 3%, although back in April the department expected to see 1% growth at best. The ministry expects inflation at 7.5%. This forecast is more pessimistic than that of the Central Bank. Based on these calculations, the Ministry of Finance must draw up the budget. Economist, author of the MMI Telegram channel Evgeny Suvorov suggested what it might look like:

“We see somewhat strange export figures; their increase means that GDP this year will be about 2.8%, although the market actually doesn’t see that much. Our forecast is 1.5% for 2023. The Ministry of Economy’s forecast does not indicate any impact of high borrowing costs on Russia’s GDP growth, although this is completely wrong.

Tightening credit policy, naturally, should slow down the economy.

The oddities, in general, most likely have one goal: the government needs to increase budget spending again, as it did at the end of 2022 and the beginning of this year. The situation will probably repeat itself.”

It was the increased budget expenditures that the Central Bank called one of the main reasons for the devaluation of the ruble. So, if the forecasts of Kommersant FM’s interlocutors turn out to be true, the actions of the authorities are unlikely to support the national currency. And then either it will begin to weaken, or the regulator will raise the rate even more. And he already revised his forecast for the coming years, announcing a tighter monetary policy.

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