The ruble is getting positive – Kommersant FM
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Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank improved their forecast for the ruble. Economists do not expect a significant weakening of the Russian currency by the end of the year. The weighted average dollar exchange rate at the end of 2023 will be 85.4 rubles. Experts came to this consensus. At the same time, back in November they believed that the dollar would reach 86 rubles for the year. The forecast for the next few years has also become more optimistic. Judging by the December survey, in 2024 the average exchange rate of the American currency will be 92 rubles. against November expectations of 94 rubles.
For the next two years, analysts also revised their estimates towards the strengthening of the Russian currency. Isn’t the forecast too optimistic? Director of the analytical department of IC Region Valery Weisberg believes that there is reason to talk about positive trends:
“Looking at how the ruble quickly returned from the area of 87-88 rubles. to 93 rub. and higher, the forecast seems too optimistic. But the main factor that suggests a stronger ruble is the Central Bank’s transition to currency sales as part of mirroring the operations of the National Welfare Fund.
Considering that additional oil and gas revenues and, accordingly, deferred currency purchases turned out to be somewhat smaller, this is also an additional factor in favor of the fact that the Central Bank will most likely sell foreign currency in fairly decent volumes. This guarantees market saturation and smoothes out fluctuations in the trade balance.
Over a longer period of time, if we are talking about 2025 and 2026, fundamental factors will have a greater impact. “I am waiting, and the consensus forecast is based on the fact that the trade balance will be quite strong, and the ruble will still be close to its more fundamental values, which are determined by the ratio of inflation in Russia and in the main partner countries.”
Analysts’ consensus forecast for GDP also improved. By the end of 2023, the figure will exceed 3%. Although in November experts expected only 2.5%. But the rate of price growth in the coming years, on the contrary, will accelerate. Thus, already in 2023, analysts believe that inflation will exceed 7.5%. And the indicator will reach the Central Bank’s target level of 4% only in 2025.
This indicates that in 2023 the high key rate will remain for an extended period. Although Finam’s strategy director Yaroslav Kabakov notes that there are grounds for slowing inflation, this is not a positive signal:
“We will see a sharp slowdown in the growth rate of inflation in the global economy, and after a certain amount of time in emerging markets. Inflation will simply exhaust itself by mid-2024. Therefore, you can, of course, extrapolate current trends for next year, but there is not much adequacy in this.
If we talk about leading indicators of economic growth, our railway shipments are slowing down. On the one hand, this may be due to seasonal factors, on the other hand, it indicates a gradual slowdown in economic growth. The factors that led to this in previous periods are exhausting themselves. Fiscal stimulus will also gradually decline.”
On December 6, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, also spoke about the situation with the ruble. He noted that now the Russian currency is at a balanced level. And taking into account the current trade balance, he estimates the fair exchange rate to be approximately 90 rubles per dollar.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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