The ruble has fallen again: analyst Drozdov believes that there is almost no chance of the dollar at 80-85

It seems that our ruble will not demonstrate a victorious end to this year. It seems that in the previous days the rate was commendably stable at 90 per dollar, and optimists began to dream of reaching the level of 85 rubles during the striking of the Chimes. But it was not there! Apparently, 10 days before the New Year, the traditional rally of the ruble began, when its positions are weakening with a “margin”, given the upcoming stock exchange holidays in early January.

Probably, December 21 can in some way be considered “Black Thursday” for the Russian ruble. Already by lunchtime during trading, the national currency could not withstand the “race to the bottom” and began to actively fall. They gave more than 92 rubles for a dollar, and the euro again became three-digit, the rate broke through the 101 ruble mark. In one incomplete trading day, the ruble weakened by more than 1.5%.

However, a number of economists urge not to panic. Long-term statistics show that December and January are traditionally considered the most difficult months for the ruble. At the end of the year, there is a surge in consumer activity; citizens and importers have an increased demand for foreign currency. Russians understand why: many want to spend the holidays “so that everything is like people’s.” Importers are preparing to purchase more goods abroad – good and different. So foreign currency is strengthening in the most natural way.

But to what extent will the ruble fall – that is the question. And how will the monetary authorities, who until now have always found ways to stop the excessive, in their opinion, fall of the national currency, look at these stock exchange games?

It is appropriate to remember here that the dollar in Russia began the year at an exchange rate of 75 rubles. And longer, the Russian currency began to actively lose value, especially in the second half of this year. In the fall, they paid more than 100 rubles for an “American,” and 110 for a “European.” Accordingly, inflation and prices in stores went up. In order to counter this scourge, the Central Bank raised the key rate from 7.5% to 16%, more than doubling. And Vladimir Putin, by his decree, obliged exporters to sell the lion’s share of foreign currency earnings.

But, as they say, the music did not play for long… Against the backdrop of the “rally” that had begun, talk in society again flared up about the dollar exchange rate in 2024, no longer at 100 rubles, but at 150-200… After all, even after the radical measures taken, our ruble continues to weaken, then what else can we expect from him?

According to financial analyst Sergei Drozdov, there is no reason to prepare for a dollar worth 200 rubles, but in the foreseeable future we need to get used to new currency realities, which assume the exchange rate of the “American” to be between 90-95 rubles.

“This is a plus or minus for the next period,” he says. – 85 may jump out at the moment. However, there is no stable trend for the strengthening of the national currency.

– What could this mean for the economy and the population?

– In the future, when new problems arise, 100 rubles per dollar may not seem to us such an out of the ordinary event. Costs will increase, which we will pay out of our own pockets. We will pay more for everything. But for now, apparently, the process of adapting the economy to the range of 90-95 rubles per “American” is underway.

– It turns out that the measures taken by the Central Bank do not greatly affect the ruble exchange rate? After all, the key rate, one might say, has been raised to the skies. But the ruble is weakening, and inflation is not slowing down…

– The Central Bank says that the key interest rate will reduce inflation. There can be no talk of any reduction without a strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. When the dollar went for 100 rubles, stabilization measures were taken, but they were just stabilization. The regulator, of course, strives to stop inflation, that is, to stop the rise in prices. Previously, raising the key rate really worked in favor of the ruble. Let’s remember 2019, when in December the dollar was worth 61 rubles. But there were good reasons for this: a record influx of foreign currency from non-residents into the Russian debt market. In the West, the key rate was near zero, and our currency strengthened due to the difference in rates. But today there are practically no non-residents on the Russian market.

Therefore, raise the key rate to at least 30%, nothing will change. The dollar exchange rate will not go back, and inflation will not stop. An example of this is Turkey, where the key rate is 40%, but the lira is weakening, inflation has not disappeared anywhere.

If we manage to “drive” the dollar into the range of 80-85 rubles, then inflation will really begin to decline at a brisk pace. But the chances of such a development of events are becoming less and less. Although, before the March presidential elections, anything extreme is unlikely to happen in the foreign exchange market.