The ruble exchange rate in the fall can break through the “psychological boundary”: how will the Central Bank respond

Experts called the factors that will affect the exchange rate in the autumn

In August 2023, the quotes of the Russian currency jumped from 92 to 100 rubles per dollar. The Bank of Russia helped the ruble strengthen by sharply raising its key rate to 12%. The measure helped at first: the rate strengthened to 93 rubles. per dollar. But the positive effect quickly exhausted itself and again the “American” slowly but surely crawled into the region of 100 rubles. What awaits the ruble after the August shake-up? What factors will affect the rate, and what financial “surprises” should consumers prepare for in September?

On August 25, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange again exceeded 100 rubles – though only for a minute. This happened for the first time since August 14th. Recall that on August 15, after an emergency meeting of the Central Bank, the dollar fell from 97.66 to 92.61 rubles. However, the strengthening of the national currency was quickly replaced by another weakening. What awaits the national currency in the fall: the final care of a hundred or is it a new round of strengthening? Forecasts of experts and think tanks on this score differ.

For example, VEB RF believes that the ruble exchange rate will not fall below 85-90 rubles in the coming years. per dollar. “If all the earned currency was here, in Russia, the dollar would be 70-80. But since the situation is different due to a powerful outflow of capital, the exchange rate will be about 85-90 rubles in the coming years, ”said Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the bank.

As for this autumn, which will come into its own in just a few days, the exchange rate scenario is much less optimistic. According to most experts, raising the key rate initially had a psychological and therefore short-lived effect on the ruble; it will really affect the average time period, when the demand for imports and, accordingly, for foreign currencies will begin to be suppressed by more expensive lending.

“The following factors influence the currency: the balance of exports and imports (more precisely, the demand for currency from importers and supply from exporters) and the outflow of capital from legal entities and individuals,” says Sergey Ramaninov, an analyst at Markets Money Power. – Raising the key rate was aimed at cooling down lending within the country and holding back inflation. In addition, an increase in the key rate makes savings in rubles a little more attractive – bonds and deposits adjust to changes and provide higher returns.” At the same time, the expert does not rule out that the dollar will break through the mark of 100 rubles already in early autumn.

It should be noted that a number of important events are expected in September, which may have a direct impact on the exchange rate of the national currency. So, in the middle of the month there will be a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate, as well as a meeting of the Committee on Open Markets of the Federal Reserve. The interlocutors of MK emphasize that until that time the ruble exchange rate can be very volatile.

“In September, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, if there are no very serious negative events, will leave the key rate at the same level. The greatest uncertainty will be created by the expectation of the Fed’s decision on interest rates,” says Andrey Loboda, economist, director of communications at BitRiver.

Meanwhile, the deficit of dollars in the country helps to strengthen the US currency. It is in US dollars that parallel imports are mainly paid. If with Chinese partners it was possible to transfer settlements in yuan to some extent, then with other importers it is usually dollars (Turkey, UAE, Kazakhstan, Armenia and other channels of parallel imports), – Anastasia Chumak, specialist of Intercessia law firm, emphasizes . “Here, the situation will definitely not change for the better due to the fact that banks cannot directly purchase cash from the US and the EU.”

One hundred rubles per dollar is a psychological ceiling and an important milestone, overcoming which (and it cannot be ruled out in the “thin”, low-liquid market) we can see new steps of the Central Bank aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate, does not exclude the investment strategist of “BCS World of Investments” Alexander Bakhtin.

“The key rate may be raised again, a return to more stringent currency control measures, the return of the mandatory rate of sale of foreign exchange earnings for exporters is possible,” he continues. “However, in our opinion, in September the ruble is more likely to push the dollar to 90 than to let it go above 100.”