The ruble exchange rate at a crossroads: experts predicted jumps up and down

The value of the Russian currency is balancing on the financial edge

After sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate in the previous weeks of August, the quotes of the Russian currency stabilized around 93-94 per dollar and 101-102 per euro. The most important question is: where will the ruble move further – towards strengthening or weakening? Financial analysts have their own reasons to assume both the first and second scenarios. How and why the value of the national currency will change in the near future, “MK” was told by financial market experts.

Vladislav Antonov, financial analyst at BitRiver:

“Since August 15, the ruble has been trading in a narrow range. The fall of the dollar to 92 rubles was caused by an increase in the key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12% per annum and expectations of additional measures to stabilize the ruble exchange rate. Initially, the ruble showed mixed dynamics. The Central Bank has opened the possibility for a further increase in the rate in case of increased inflationary risks.

Now the ruble is receiving support from the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters in anticipation of the peak of tax payments on August 28. The weakness of the oil market and the strengthening of the dollar put pressure on the ruble. After August 28, we expect the ruble to weaken against the dollar to 98 rubles, the euro – to 105 rubles, the yuan – to 13.30 rubles.

Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company:

“There are only a few days left until the end of August. You can’t do much in a matter of days, especially since the increased rate of the Central Bank continues to set up credit institutions to increase the issuance of loans: in July, banks issued loans to Russians in the amount of 1.53 trillion rubles, which became a monthly record for the entire period of keeping relevant statistics. It is clear that the decision of the Central Bank regarding the rate followed later, but the progress is clear – now the volume of issuance of both commercial and consumer loans is likely to increase.

Quotations of 96-97 rubles per dollar are likely to remain until mid-autumn. Economic factors, if Europe does not create new problematic sanctions levers against Russia, will not affect the ruble quotes supported in international transactions by friendly states with Moscow.

The course is now teetering on the edge. But every edge is another frontier. It must be understood that overcoming the next bar requires a concrete and often courageous decision. Financial experts do not like to give transparent forecasts regarding stock quotes, bond prices and, especially, currency quotes. However, the best advice is this – do not prepare for the worst and do not count on the most unforeseen moments: they will turn out to be positive or negative in the future – only time will tell.