The risk of Russia’s eternal existence under European sanctions has been assessed: “It won’t be possible to wait it out”

EU authorities are preparing the 13th and 14th packages of anti-Russian sanctions. This was stated by Czech Member of the European Parliament Tomas Zdekhovsky. It is curious that the European Union emphasizes that even after the end of hostilities in Ukraine and the conclusion of a peace agreement, anti-Russian sanctions will continue to be adopted by the authorities of the states that are members of this association. It will also not be possible to lift the restrictions due to the position of European institutions, such as the European Commission and the European Parliament, as well as the opinions of individual countries. Experts told MK why Russia has not been afraid of the scenario of “eternal sanctions” or their lifting for a long time.

Less than a week has passed since the adoption of the 12th package of EU sanctions – the restrictions were approved in mid-December – and now unfriendly countries intend to begin discussing the next ones. Let us recall that the already adopted list of protective measures directed against Russia included trade in diamonds mined in our country. Discussions of the restrictions were not without friction and took about a month, but intra-bloc disagreements were resolved. As a result, from January 1, 2024, the import of non-industrial natural diamonds, artificial diamonds and jewelry containing diamonds into EU countries from Russia will be banned. And in another three months, from March 1, the import of Russian-origin diamonds processed in third countries, weighing from 1 carat per stone, will also be stopped. Starting in the fall, the ban will apply to Russian synthetic diamonds processed in third countries, jewelry and wrist and pocket watches made there using Russian diamonds weighing 0.5 carats or more.

But this was not enough for the Europeans. According to Zdechowski, the 13th and 14th packages will be presented to EU member states very soon. So far, the European Commission has not commented on the content of restrictive measures. However, another statement by European officials attracted attention. The EC claims that the adoption of new packages of sanctions will continue in the event of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. It is also unlikely that restrictions already adopted will be lifted. The main obstacle to lifting sanctions may be the position of individual EU member states. In other words, if, for example, Estonia does not want to support the removal of anti-Russian restrictions, it will simply veto an attempt by, say, Hungary or Slovakia to do this. As a result, Russia may find itself under European sanctions forever. Russian analysts, at the request of MK, assessed the reality of such a scenario.

Lazar Badalov, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, RUDN University:

“The fact is that sanctions are more correctly called a sanctions war of the West against Russia. In this context, it becomes clear that the West will always find a reason to introduce new sanctions and maintain old ones. The point is not at all in the Ukrainian conflict, but in the fact that the United States views Russia’s role in the world order as a donor of resources. There were no sanctions as long as Russia agreed to such a role, but when the situation changed, the West, led by the United States, began to find reasons to impose sanctions. We started with small steps like the Magnitsky List, and now there is a reason in the form of Ukraine, but even after the end of the conflict, the United States will not deviate from its goal. And the goal is quite simple – to return Russia to the status of a “gas station country.” In such a situation, there is only one way out – to develop our own economy, infrastructure, and scientific base. It is in this case that Russia will be able not only to reorient itself to working with friendly countries, but to offer them a clear alternative. Waiting it out in the hope that everything will return to the way it was will not work.

Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytical department of BKF bank:

“The “inviolability” of sanctions should not be overestimated. If the countries that imposed sanctions benefit, they will lift them. Here is a recent example that confirms this statement. Austria blocked the 12th package of sanctions until the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption of Ukraine (NAPC) suspended Raiffeisenbank’s status as an “international war sponsor” “for the period of bilateral consultations with the involvement of representatives of the European Commission.” Previously, OTP Bank was completely excluded from the list of war sponsors in order to receive 500 million euros of military aid from the EU, which Budapest blocked. Meanwhile, both banks continue to operate in Russia.

Although the 12th package is aimed, in particular, against the export of Russian diamonds, the shares of the state-owned company Alrosa have hardly changed in price since December 18 (the day this package was adopted). The impact of this decision on the international diamond market was equally weak, although the departure of such a large player from the market would undoubtedly lead to a sharp rise in prices. According to Alrosa, the company has “increased its share to 30% of global diamond production in physical terms.” Why is the impact of sanctions weak or absent? We learned to get around. Let us paraphrase a well-known aphorism: “The ferocity of anti-Russian sanctions is tempered by their widespread circumvention.” There are still craftsmen in Rus’ who bypassed the previous sanctions – they will bypass the new ones too.”

Ekaterina Novikova, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov:

“History has proven more than once that nothing lasts forever in relations between countries: yesterday’s opponents can today increase trade turnover with each other and vice versa. In this regard, and for Europe, it is just a matter of changing interests, politicians, and, ultimately, the emergence of unbearable conditions within the framework of the formation of a new global world order, under which it will be necessary to negotiate with Russia. But for our country at this moment in time there is a more important task, namely, a more advantageous positioning of its economy within the framework of the fragmentation of the world economy and the expansion of the BRICS countries. So far, Russia is doing well, so there’s no point in paying much attention to the new packages of European sanctions.”

Semyon Kramskoy, director of the trade agency for foreign economic activity “S-Trade”:

“Sanctions against Russia in modern politics began in 1917 and did not end, but initially they began in the 12th century. We have been under sanctions for 9 centuries: can we call them eternal? Long – for sure. Definitely, sanctions will definitely continue even after the end of the conflict, as a global trend is emerging: two camps of interaction are being formed in the world.

The EU will not lift sanctions under any circumstances. This means that the Russian economy will undergo major restructuring, work through “friendly” countries and come up with various “tricks” for interaction and building international trade.”