The rising exchange rate of the ruble has refuted the logic of officials

On Thursday, the dollar left the corridor 60-60.7, which fluctuated in recent weeks, and updated the August lows. And on Friday, August 19, its stock quotes fell at the moment to the level of 59.08.

The euro did not lag behind, falling to 59.8. This happened against the backdrop of mixed dynamics of oil prices, which first rose above $96.5 per barrel, and then, after a short time, fell to $95.6.

We asked the candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev to clarify the situation.

– Why did the ruble go up again?

– The Russian economy is in the process of quite successfully adapting to the conditions of the sanctions, I do not see any obvious signs of a crisis.

The American one, on the other hand, gives negative signals (in particular, inflationary ones), although on the whole it remains stable.

The economic situation in two countries – the USA and Russia – determines the fundamental exchange rate ratio of the dollar to the ruble: in the region of 59-60. Everything else is insignificant (plus or minus two rubles) and short-term (two or three days) fluctuations around this base rate, which occur under the influence of market factors. There is no need to talk about any long-term trends or trends now.

The current rate (69-60) will definitely remain until the end of August, and possibly until the end of September. Today, the dollar rolled back to 59, and tomorrow, as highbrow analysts say, it will “test” the level of 58 rubles.

– How big is the role of Russia’s large trade surplus in the history of exchange rate formation? After all, the supply of currency from exporting companies far exceeds the demand for it from importing companies …

– This is an important factor, but by no means decisive. It’s about a combination of circumstances. Indeed, the trade surplus contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, but – up to a certain limit, at 59-60 per dollar. I repeat, the basis, the foundation of exchange rate formation is the deep macroeconomic situation. And then the rate is subject to adjustment, “polishing” in real time, under the influence of the same foreign trade or some informational, political moments.

Do you think that a growing trade surplus will lead to an endless strengthening of the ruble? Yes, nothing like that! The rate will always stop at a point determined by the general state of the economy. Today it is 58, at most 57. But not 30, not 20 and not 10.

– But what about the task of weakening the ruble, set at the government level? The Ministry of Finance does not need a dollar at 60, it needs a dollar at 70, or better, 80 rubles to fill the budget.

– You never know what the task is. We need tools to solve it. There are objective circumstances, there are exchange rate laws, all this must be taken into account, and not ignored. It is as if the members of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU, headed by comrade Brezhnev, demanded that academicians achieve an acceleration of a space rocket at the start of up to 10 meters per second, instead of 9.8. Well, it’s a utopia!

Yes, the Ministry of Finance, the budget and exporters like the figure of 70 rubles per dollar. And for importers, those industries that are going to buy components abroad, it is much more pleasant to see the ruble equal to the dollar. Investors, stock market players, will rejoice if a dollar costs a ruble in the morning, and 100 by the evening. In general, you won’t please everyone!

– According to some experts, the ruble strengthened under the influence of two factors. First, due to the increased supply of foreign currency from exporters preparing for tax payments. Secondly, the price of Brent oil rose above $96.5 per barrel. How important is this in reality?

– Rising oil increased the budget surplus. There has been no connection between its price and the ruble exchange rate for a long time. So this is a purely opportunistic factor, as well as preparation for the tax period. When the period passes, the dollar will return to an objectively determined point. Yes, the ruble used to be heavily pegged to oil, since the economy and foreign trade were much less diversified. And today the country trades far from only oil and gas, exporting grain, products, and weapons…

– Should citizens buy foreign currency right now?

– Gone are the days when people went to dollars and euros, because they lived in constant expectation of the devaluation of the ruble and the loss of their savings. Yes, you can protect yourself from inflation by buying foreign currency, but you need to understand: the bank sells it to you at its own internal, higher rate, and you will have to return the rubles at a low purchase rate. And this is comparable to the losses from inflation: you do not gain anything.

Today, neither the dollar, nor the euro, nor the yuan, let alone other currencies, can be considered a reliable tool for saving ruble funds. It makes sense to buy currency only in one single case – if you have to travel abroad, to a country where a domestic payment card does not work.