The Republican candidate did not compete for the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives

Majority Leader Steve Scalise, nominated by Republicans for the post of Speaker of the US House of Representatives on October 11, refused to run. This happened after a number of his party members said that they did not intend to vote for Scalise. Republicans have scheduled another meeting, during which they plan to nominate a new candidate who can gain the support of the entire party.

“Our party must unite before this happens. There are still people with their own agenda,” Scalise said after withdrawing from the Oct. 12 speakership race. On Friday, October 13, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan announced his intention to run for office again.

A week earlier, on October 3, the far-right wing of the Republicans initiated the removal of Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy from office. He was accused of colluding with the Democrats and not complying with the requests of fellow party members when agreeing on the draft federal budget.

Scalise won the speakership nomination from Jordan following a secret ballot on Wednesday, October 11, by a slight margin: 113 votes to 99. However, after the results were announced, the opponent admitted defeat and spoke out in support of Scalise. Also, despite his closeness to Jordan, Scalise’s candidacy was supported by one of the representatives of the far-right wing, Matt Gaetz. “Long live Speaker Scalise,” the congressman shouted as he addressed reporters after the vote.

However, not everyone was in a festive mood. Former Speaker McCarthy doubted Scalise’s ability to get enough votes in the election for Speaker. And former US President Donald Trump, who supported Jordan, drew attention to Scalise’s health (on August 29, 2023, the congressman was diagnosed with blood cancer) and questioned his ability to physically carry out his activities as speaker. “Steve has a huge problem with his cancer, I don’t know how you can do your job with such a serious problem,” Trump said on Fox News Radio.

According to The New York Times, after Scalise announced his withdrawal from the race, Jordan’s supporters once again assured him of their support. According to the publication, relatively moderate party members do not intend to change their preferences in favor of Jordan, as they consider this to be a pass in the face of “tyranny” (from the right wing of the party). But on the evening of October 13, Republican Tim Burchett told reporters assembled in Congress that the party was “close” to choosing Jim Jordan.

The possibility of a return to the post of the suspended McCarthy, who during an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on October 9, said that he would approve any decision of the party, including if he is nominated again, cannot be ruled out. Some Republicans are proposing to hand over additional powers to Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry, who is also being considered as an alternative to Scalise and Jordan.

The powers of the Speaker pro tempore are governed by clause 8, subclause (b)(3) of Rule I of the House of Representatives, 2003. According to this clause, “until such election is held [спикера или и.о.] member [временный спикер], the Speaker pro tempore, may exercise such powers of the Speaker as may be necessary and proper for this purpose.” The regulations are still the subject of debate about their interpretation among American legal practitioners and legal scholars.

Congressmen must nominate a speaker by Nov. 17, when approval of the federal budget for the new fiscal year is required. Otherwise, and in the absence of interim solutions, the US government will close completely or partially (depending on the distribution of funding), in other words, declare a “shutdown.”

On September 30, the House of Representatives approved a draft short-term budget for 45 days, which does not include spending on military aid for Ukraine. But after McCarthy was removed on October 3, the House ceased to function. According to the rules, the temporary speaker has the power only to set the date for the election of a new speaker, adjourn meetings and suspend the work of the chamber. Under these conditions, Congress cannot approve additional military assistance to US allies such as Israel and partners like Taiwan.

To win, a candidate for the post of speaker needs to get 218 votes. Republicans control 221 seats. A potential speaker can afford to lose only 3 votes (on October 13, Republicans did not support the plan, which provides for a threshold of 217 votes). At the same time, 8 Republicans voted against McCarthy on October 3.

If Scalise could not get sufficient support, then it is unclear who will be able to do this, Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS, comments on the situation. “Jordan – even if he wins the nomination – may not get the necessary votes in the House. It’s hard to say whether there is a candidate who will suit both the moderates and the far-right,” says Zhuravleva.

Under these conditions, the risks of a shutdown continue to increase, the expert continues. “As for military assistance to Ukraine, it may also slow down, since right-wing Republicans do not consider this a fundamental issue for themselves. Even what is happening in the Middle East will not become an incentive for the right to find a compromise position with the “moderates” within their own party and the democrats,” Zhuravleva believes.

Right-wing Republicans are ready to do almost anything to seize power in the party, says Alexey Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. Because of this policy, the expert believes, the party’s chances in future elections are reduced. Naumov is sure that for the ultra-right, the identity of the speaker’s candidate does not matter; they are interested in political points. “When their own electorate begins to express dissatisfaction, only then will the right wing be able to agree to a compromise candidate,” Naumov concluded.

Trump and the forces close to him are behind everything, believes Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN). According to the scientist, the right wing of the Republican Party is aimed at appointing either a Trumpist or the ex-president himself as speaker. He also noted that Trump himself may well consider this option for himself even as a deceptive technique to sabotage investigations in which he is involved.

Vasiliev believes that interim Speaker McHenry “will not see” temporary powers, since the goal of the right wing is not to reopen the House, but to dominate within the Republican Party, even if this costs it victory in future elections.

There’s nothing stopping Trump from getting elected now [спикером], says Igor Slabykh, a lawyer practicing in the United States. “The rules of Congress and the Republican Party in Congress may begin to interfere only after the election, and it is not a fact that they will begin. Therefore, if Trump wanted to become speaker, he would have already nominated himself, and would not have supported the head of the House Judiciary Committee, Jordan. Therefore, I think it is unlikely that Trump [это] interesting,” the lawyer concluded.