The reasons for the moderate strengthening of the ruble are named: when the word is silver

The course responded to “verbal interventions” from top officials

On Tuesday, September 12, the exchange rate of the ruble fluctuated like on a swing. At first, he cheerfully moved towards the 90 per dollar mark, but soon backed down, as if afraid of his own agility. This behavior of his is mainly due to the wave of favorable forecasts that were voiced the day before by the top officials of the country, including at the Eastern Economic Forum. As it turned out, the Russian currency is capable of strengthening for a short time. Another thing is a long-term trend, which depends on the objective state of the economy. With him, everything is far from so clear.

Already in the 23rd minute of trading, the national currency of the Russian Federation strengthened to 92.45 per dollar, which turned out to be 4 rubles below the current official rate. But then there was a rollback to 94.76. Well, that’s the same result. This is how the foreign exchange market reacted, first of all, to numerous “verbal interventions” from senior officials regarding the exchange rate and its prospects. For example, presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin noted at the WEF plenary session: “Fundamental factors, the balance of payments, confident budget execution, slowing lending – all this creates the preconditions for a stronger ruble in the coming months.” Business is waiting for the stabilization of the exchange rate, for which the most important thing is predictability, said, in turn, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin. Vladimir Putin did not stay away from the topic either. According to the head of state, since there are no insurmountable problems with the exchange rate of the Russian currency, no one will make sudden movements in this situation.

Fundamental factors also played a role. Import volumes have decreased, loans have become more expensive for both individuals and businesses, demand for goods has fallen – as a result, less of them are imported. Accordingly, the demand for foreign currency for external payments has also decreased. The exchange rate was influenced – coupled with high oil prices – by the authorities’ informal agreement with exporters to exchange most of the foreign exchange earnings on the Moscow Exchange. In addition, from September 14 to 22, the Central Bank will sell foreign currency for 150 billion rubles: the daily volume during this time will be 21.4 billion rubles against the current 2.3 billion. And at the end of the month the tax period will begin: exporters will do the same, to pay due fees to the budget. All this, in theory, plays into the hands of the ruble.

“Our balance of payments and trade statistics have improved somewhat,” says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. – In August, the Central Bank estimated the current account surplus at $2.8 billion versus a deficit of $0.3 billion in July. That is, a certain stabilization is taking place in the foreign economic sphere, which reduces the risks of a sharp and immediate weakening of the ruble. According to forecasts, by the end of the year the growth rate of exports will outpace the growth rate of imports. Oil prices are now above $90 per barrel Brent, the Russian Urals brand is trading at a discount of about $12, which means that commodity revenues to the treasury will not fall below the planned 8 trillion rubles. As a result, the budget deficit is expected to be at a clear level of 2%. According to the Central Bank, sales volumes of foreign currency earnings are also growing.”

The course of the auction was also affected by “verbal interventions” on the part of top officials. Here is Oreshkin’s statement that the peak of the ruble’s weakening has passed, and the encouraging forecast for GDP growth from Prime Minister Mishustin (+2.8% at the end of the year), and the revelations of the heads of leading state banks German Gref and Andrei Kostin, who do not expect the regulator to increase the key rates this Friday. The main task for the state now is to stabilize the exchange rate, and not some nominal values. And there is every reason to believe that the rate will be able to fit into the 90-95 corridor, Maslennikov sums up.

“Over the past two days, the national currency has gained back about 3% against the dollar and euro,” states BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. – The day before, the Central Bank decided to increase foreign currency sales to strengthen the ruble, and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin pointed to a budget surplus in August and the restoration of oil and gas revenues. However, factors remain that play against the exchange rate: general geopolitical uncertainty, the expectation of further tightening of sanctions, as well as capital outflow due to currency restrictions and business risks.”

The current positive shift in exchange rate dynamics is associated, first of all, with the actions of the government and the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market. These measures are a priori more effective; they have a faster impact on the structure of supply and demand than increasing the key rate, says Alexey Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research at RANEPA. Without a doubt, the devaluation of the ruble is a formidable problem – both in terms of financial stability and inflation, and for the prospects of the economy as a whole. In the opinion of MK’s interlocutor, the ruble can naturally enter a corridor of 85-90 per dollar that is comfortable for business. If so, there is no point in raising the rate. Otherwise, economic growth will suffer.