The rate of population decline in the Russian Federation has slowed down

In 2023, the population of Russia, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, decreased by 243 thousand people (0.17%) and as of January 1, 2024 it amounted to 146.204 million people. Rosstat will report the final figure later, this is due to the fact that the number of deaths and births may not be reflected in the registry office databases immediately – in particular, when relatives or medical institutions draw up documents corresponding to these events with a delay. On January 1, 2023, the population was 146.447 million people – then the reduction over the year was twice as large and amounted to 533 thousand people.

The bulk of the population of the Russian Federation, according to Rosstat, lives in cities – this is 109.6 million people. The remaining 36.6 million are rural residents. Note that the reduction in the rural population in the Russian Federation corresponds to the global trend towards urbanization. In Russia, the number of this category has been declining in recent years, while the number of urban residents is growing (with the exception of 2021, when more people died in cities due to the faster spread of coronavirus).

Rosstat has not yet published data on the natural movement of the population for the entire year; from statistics for 11 months it follows that natural population decline (the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births) decreased by 19.3% compared to the same period in 2022. The figure was 438.3 thousand versus 543.4 thousand people.

The main factor behind the population decline was the decline in the birth rate – over the 11 months of 2023 it amounted to 3% (1.162 million children were born). Mortality also decreased (this, however, occurred relative to the high base of 2022, which was still affected by the pandemic). The number of deaths in the Russian Federation over the 11 months of 2023 decreased by 8.1%, to 1.6 million people.

As Rosstat explained, the estimate of the population of the Russian Federation as of January 1 was given without taking into account official statistical information for the four annexed regions. According to government estimates, which it made to calculate insurance premiums, several million more people could now live in them (see “Kommersant” dated January 26).

According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, by January 1, 2046, the population of the Russian Federation in the base scenario will decrease to 138.8 million people. In the “low” scenario it will fall to 130.6 million, in the “high” scenario it will rise to 150.9 million people.

Anastasia Manuilova