The prospect of further assistance to Ukraine from the United States has been assessed: “A downward trend”

On Saturday, the United States was preparing for a shutdown that did not happen. In the best traditions of American militants, literally in the last seconds the collapse was prevented, Congress passed a bill on temporary funding of the government until November 17. The budget version considered to be a compromise included a domestic disaster relief item, but the document did not include additional assistance to Ukraine. This measure was joyfully greeted by Democrats: the bill was supported by 209 Democrats versus 126 Republicans.

Sure, the Democratic Party called it a victory. Top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries said before the vote: “Extreme MAGA Republicans lost, the American people won.”

However, for Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, everything turned out to be not very happy. Fellow party members actually began to compare him to Judas, because McCarthy refused the Republican funding project (which the Democrats were unlikely to agree to). Hardliners among the Republicans even began to say that it was time to “move” the speaker, because he “prevented a shutdown on the Democrats’ terms.”

But McCarthy responded stoically: “If I have to risk my job protecting the American public, I will do it.”

However, November 17 will arrive at some point, and therefore discussions about financing may well resume. It is clear that the adopted temporary measure has passed for now, but disagreements remain, and therefore it is curious how the situation will develop in the future. Will the trend towards reducing aid to Kyiv continue?

In a conversation with MK, Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained the ups and downs with the American budget:

— Neither the Biden administration, nor the leadership of the Senate (both Republicans and Democrats), nor the leadership of the House of Representatives wanted a government shutdown. The shutdown was pushed only by the uncompromising position of about 15-20 Republican congressmen, who can be called Trump supporters. They acted on direct orders and even under the “shadow leadership” of the 45th President of the United States. Only he was interested in the government closing down.

The expert explains that Trump’s interest in this was selfish. A government shutdown would be a blow to funding for the Justice Department and other agencies prosecuting the ex-president.

“Closing the government during an election year is a double-edged sword,” emphasizes Vladimir Vasiliev. — In the past period (in 1995–1996), under similar conditions, the Republicans took such a step, hoping that the American public would attribute everything to Clinton’s inexperience and the outcome of the election would be decided in favor of the Republicans. But that did not happen. It was the other way around.

And indeed. The current situation now looks about the same as in the last century. Democrats are actively promoting the idea that it is the Republicans who are to blame for the country’s financial problems; their internal division threatens the well-being of American society. And if so, then the conclusion suggests itself: Republicans cannot lead the country. An interesting multi-way game is coming out…

If we remember what items were not included in the interim budget, then in addition to assistance to Ukraine, the issue of protecting the US-Mexico border will also be crossed out. Vladimir Vasiliev recalled that the Republicans insisted on a sharp tightening of spending on protecting this border. The Democrats were not interested in this:

“The Democrats did not need these additional expenses at all. The Trumpists did not need Ukraine at all. As a result, such a compromise emerged: we do not allocate funds to strengthen the US-Mexico border, and in exchange the issue of assistance to Kyiv was dropped. At least for these 45 days.

– “For these 45 days”… What will happen next?

– Further, the situation remains quite uncertain, since this problem rests on another issue – the general state of affairs with the federal budget deficit and the level of military spending. The main problem is that Democrats have set the new military spending request at a very high level ($868 billion), while Republicans are demanding that aid to Ukraine be frozen at 2022 levels.

The political scientist emphasizes that it is difficult to say how this problem will be solved in a month and a half. In November, the analyst says, the situation may look different. There will be a question about general and military spending: “It is possible that according to this parameter, spending on Ukraine may be reduced if a decision is made to reduce defense spending in relation to the Biden administration’s request.”

Based on the current situation, Vladimir Vasiliev made several main conclusions:

— First, the issue of a possible closure of the government after November 17 has not been canceled. Second, a compromise version of the budget will be adopted, which will be valid until September 30, 2024. Third, continue to finance the government under a temporary scheme.

This budget crisis is not resolved. All the hysteria about the shutdown can be reproduced in a more hysterical form. With regard to Ukraine: Republicans will clearly demand an audit, a report on the efficiency of spending funds. Judging by today’s events, there may be a trend towards some reduction in the amount of aid. This “trend” may develop further. For reference: in July, the average amount of American aid to Kyiv was $1.1 billion, in August and September it decreased to $400 million, and in October it remained at $300 million. There is a noticeable downward trend. Perhaps this may be due to the fact that in winter active hostilities on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will cease.