The price of security – Newspaper Kommersant No. 192 (7393) dated 10/17/2022

Last week, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said the world has become “more competitive”, pointing not only to US-China relations, but also to the position of the European Union, comparing Europe to a garden that combines political freedom, economic prosperity and the desire for social equality. “The rest of the world, as you know, is not a garden, most of it is a jungle, and the jungle can invade the garden, but building a wall will not help – the jungle has great growth potential, gardeners should go into the jungle themselves,” Josep Borrell urged , substantiating the need for a more active position of the EU in world diplomacy.

Protection from rapidly growing barbarians is a fairly common motive in history (it was guided by the builders of the Great Wall of China), which lost its relevance in the 1990s, when trade liberalization became the main way for developing countries, including Russia and China, to integrate into the world market. After the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, the discussion about the necessary height of the wall with the existing density of the jungle flared up again: the election campaign was carried out under the slogans “Bring America back to its former greatness” and build “a big beautiful wall.”

In the four years of his presidency, Donald Trump was unable to build a wall on the border with Mexico (fencing of various types was installed on a third of its length), but he managed to do something more important – to undermine the established practice of prioritizing free trade, which largely brings economic benefits to the developed countries themselves: the removal of production abroad against the backdrop of cheaper logistics made it possible to increase the efficiency, and hence the profitability of corporations, the labor market also adapted to the flow of jobs due to the growth of the sectors of the “new economy”.

The new consensus suggests that in the absence of an open conflict (parity of power provides at least a rational justification for such deterrence), economic resources can be used as leverage to pressure counterparties, and countries must protect themselves in all sectors where critical vulnerabilities are possible. First of all, this concerns technological leadership, but the conflict in Ukraine has shown that the supply of raw materials, energy resources and food is no less vulnerable, countries will look for ways to increase their own independence and reliable suppliers, and in their absence, intermediaries that provide guarantees for the execution of contracts. For example, Turkey is ready to take on such a role when exporting Russian gas to the EU. However, the intermediary always takes a percentage: in order to save on trade duties and redirect these funds to the prosperity of the participants, the builders of the global economy of the past built it.