The political scientist assessed the likelihood of the termination of the existence of Ukraine by partition between neighboring countries

“Russia would like to resolve this peacefully”

Foreign media write this week that Poland plans to seize part of the territory of western Ukraine. According to the Polish authorities, this is their historical center. If such a scenario is possible, then what will it be like – military, or will Ukraine hand them over just like that? Russian and Ukrainian political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko expressed his opinion on the air of the Honest Analytics program, saying that “the existence of Ukraine will inevitably end with its division between neighboring countries.”

According to the political scientist, the Western part of Ukraine needs to be taken now, otherwise “you may not have time.” The expert also notes that Russia would like to resolve this peacefully, so that the Poles “simply take three Galician regions, persuade the Hungarians to take Transcarpathia, the Romanians Bukovina. That would be the end of the matter.”

Ishchenko does not deny that such a path would be “profitable” for Russia. “Vladimir Putin, even during his Valdai speech, mentioned that after World War II Stalin took and handed over a number of Polish lands to Ukraine.” Not only Russians, the political scientist emphasizes, but also Polish ones.

“Indigenous Polish lands can only be Galicia, which for about 600 years was part of Poland. Even within the framework of the Austrian Empire, it was ruled by the Poles,” says Ishchenko. He also suggested that the mention of this could speak of “an informal proposal to finally take what is yours and calm down.”

From the point of view of the legalization of the division of Ukraine, the political scientist believes, for Russia “the participation of the EU and NATO in this is of certain benefit”, since then the United States will “difficulty blocking the declaration of the death of Ukraine in the United Nations.” At the same time, Ishchenko emphasizes that if Russia itself begins to act in this direction, the United States “will continue to tell for a long time that, from their point of view, Ukraine exists, they will not recognize its inclusion in Russia and the like.” So it was with the Baltic states, the expert recalls.

Ishchenko is sure that if the Poles, Hungarians and Romanians are also interested in “putting an end to Ukraine”, then the United States will have to reckon with its allies. But, as the political scientist notes, there are “some difficulties.” Ishchenko admits that Russia has serious disagreements with the Poles. “They are very afraid of us. If the Hungarians and Romanians agree in principle that nothing is left of Ukraine, then the Poles would like to leave a buffer between Poland and Russia – the Ukrainian state, dependent on them, of course,” concludes the political scientist.