The National Wealth Fund will be filled with another currency: what are the risks

Not only ordinary Russians, but also our state structures are moving to store their ruble surpluses in yuan. Thus, experts suggest that by the end of this year, the structure of our National Welfare Fund (NWF) may significantly change its format. 60% of it will be occupied by Chinese yuan, and the remaining 40% – gold.

In Russia, exports of goods constantly exceed imports; earlier, the currency flow was presented mainly in dollars and euros. But, according to experts, with the growing risks of sanctions blocking foreign trade operations, our traditional currency values ​​should be replaced by other financial equivalents.

It is quite logical that the Chinese yuan will become the main one – the Celestial Empire has recently become our largest trading partner. In addition, foreign trade operations with Western countries are falling sharply, while with the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, they are on the contrary growing. And in these parts of the world, the Chinese currency is also in high demand.

At the end of December last year, the volume of the National Wealth Fund amounted to 11 trillion 390 billion rubles. The detailed structure of the reserves of the Russian Federation is not disclosed now. But it is known that at the beginning of 2023, there were just over 17% of assets in the yuan, and its share in the NWF was 30%.

At the same time, the normative maximum value of the currency of the PRC, determined by the Ministry of Finance of Russia, is 60%. Economists do not rule out that by the end of this year, the FNB will have the maximum amount of Chinese currency. The remaining 40% in the structure of the Fund will be occupied by non-cash gold.

It is striking that the current structure of the National Welfare Fund, for some reason, does not include the Russian ruble at all. On the one hand, we say that the country’s economy is gradually recovering after the “nuclear sanctions” – then why not keep at least part of the reserves in domestic currency?

– We must proceed from the fact that we must get away from toxic currencies – dollars, euros and the monetary units of some other unfriendly countries, – explains Mikhail Belyaev, candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst. – In this situation, there is no other option, for us they are less reliable, if only for the reason that they can be frozen unilaterally at any time. Everyone knows that we face all sorts of obstacles to transactions with them and there is no point in keeping money in these currencies.

– How reliable is the yuan to trust it with our “financial cushion” of safety?

– The yuan, after all, is a state-regulated currency, which to a certain extent determines its stability. This gives us additional insurance against sharp fluctuations up or down. And, as you know, the very regulation of the exchange rate takes place on the basis of a healthy and growing Chinese economy, which in turn determines the stability of the yuan.

– Previously, before the “war of sanctions”, the NWF kept funds in different currencies. Which, as officials explained to us, reduced the risk of devaluation. There were different baskets. Now – only in yuan …

– Why? And 40% in non-cash gold?

– And how to understand it?

– Approximately the same as holding an account that is indexed to the value of gold. As depersonalized accounts of individuals. If you close such an account, they look at the current rate – how much grams of your gold cost and pay out money. We proceed from the fact that gold is a fairly stable monetary material, a universal equivalent. Indexation of gold investments is probably a more reliable asset than rubles.

– But back to different baskets. At one time, economists even advised ordinary Russians to keep money in different currencies. If one “staggers”, you can use the other. And now – there is not much choice. Does this create additional risks for savings in the NWF?

– If earlier we thought that different currencies – dollars, euros, pounds, yen – are different baskets, now everyone understands that this is one basket and it is toxic. Here the thesis about different baskets does not fit in any way. Of course, for insurance, it would be good to find another such stable currency, but it simply does not exist yet.

– Do you advise Russians to keep their savings in yuan?

– Experts can give characteristics to each instrument for investment, but decisions must be made by a person. Probably, for those who already have a foreign currency account, it is not profitable to convert it into rubles or yuan now, the dollar and euro rates are growing against the Russian currency. But it also happens the other way around: in order not to lose your savings, it is better to go into yuan or rubles. There are various rumors: that the exchange for dollars and euros may be banned altogether. Or that they will even establish some kind of “forced” course. Our “wooden” is subject to inflation, but some banks promise a fairly high rate on deposits. So the “ruble” option of savings can also be considered.