The myth about assistance to Ukraine with electricity from the West has been refuted

Regular Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure have led to the loss of more than half of the consumption of the Nezalezhnaya energy system. The national company Ukrenergo has declared a state of emergency in the country. Kyiv intends to cope with the shortage of electricity and prevent a blackout at the expense of the West, buying electricity there. About whether these hopes are real, “MK” talked with an expert from the Financial University under the government, Igor Yushkov.

– An emergency situation has been declared in Ukraine in connection with the failure of 50% of energy capacities as a result of Russian missile strikes. Can we assume that Nezalezhnaya is on the verge of a blackout?

– A complete or partial blackout in Ukraine occurs from time to time. Since mid-October, rolling blackouts in the country have actually become a daily practice.

At the end of November, after Russian missile strikes, Kyiv had to turn off the power units of all three nuclear power plants for the first time in history: the Rivne, Khmelnytsky and South Ukrainian nuclear power plants. At the same time, most of the hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants stopped supplying electricity. As a result, more than a dozen areas of Nezalezhnaya were de-energized.

There were interruptions in the work of the transport, social and communal infrastructure: due to delays in the departure of trains along the railway lines, Ukrainians had to urgently use additional diesel locomotives.

Moreover, damage to the power grids affected the Kyiv Metro, whose trains arrived at the stations with a big delay, and the Kharkov Metro completely stopped working for some time. All the above facts, in essence, testify that if not a blackout, then the energy collapse in Ukraine has already come a long time ago.

– Kyiv is counting on the EU supplying electricity. But the Europeans themselves are now in an unenviable energy situation. Will they agree to share electricity with Ukrainian consumers?

– The flow of electricity from Europe to Ukraine is already underway. Deliveries are made from Poland and Hungary, as well as from Romania through the territory of Moldova.

In October, a number of EU members promised to provide Nezalezhnaya with at least 400 generators and €1 billion in emergency assistance to quickly restore power supply. In turn, representatives of Ukrenergo stated that Kyiv was working on a mechanism for importing electricity from the countries of the Old World with the possibility of purchasing up to 600 MW. Higher volumes were also mentioned.

The European network of power transmission system operators ENTSO-E, to which Ukrainian distribution lines have been connected since the end of February 2022, theoretically makes it possible to import European electricity.

But the EU countries are unlikely to help Kyiv to the detriment of their own economy and population. The natural gas stored in the underground storage facilities of the continent, which still serves as the main resource for electricity generation, is already being used up at an accelerated rate. Therefore, it is clearly premature to assume that the European allies of Ukraine will agree to increase the current volumes of deliveries.

– Deliveries are carried out on credit?

– Not certainly in that way. As far as I know, there are agreements on emergency power flows in the event that Ukrainian consumers are cut off from electricity.

In fact, this happens in the following way. For example, as a result of a Russian missile strike, electricity stops flowing to some regions of Ukraine. Then the European countries, with which the relevant agreement has been concluded, establish emergency supplies of electricity from their generating facilities. However, such shipment is temporary, and the volume of deliveries is kept at a minimum level.

If it comes to a permanent supply, then Kyiv will have to pay for the import of electricity from Europe on the basis of commercial transactions. Of course, the provision of certain benefits is not excluded, but you still have to pay for European deliveries.

However, most likely, Ukraine will ask for a credit line for such purposes, so the costs in the end will still fall on the shoulders of either the American or European governments. Borrowed money will go around in circles, and it is possible that part of the funds will be used by Kyiv to solve completely different problems.

– Will the amount of electricity allocated by Europe be enough for Ukraine, and how feasible is the supply of electricity in practice, because a significant part of the Ukrainian infrastructure has been destroyed?

– This is the main problem. Even with all the will, Europe will not be able to close the Ukrainian electricity gaps.

Russia strikes not at generating facilities, but at the network economy – substations and transformers. It is difficult to destroy turbines inside power plants, but it is relatively easy to disable transmission lines, which will also lead to disconnection of consumers from power.

The Russian strategy is to force the Ukrainian grid companies to turn off the circuit breakers themselves. Unlike gas and oil, electricity cannot be stored or stored in reserve – it must constantly move from the generating facility to the consumer. Those deliveries that are now being made from Romania, Poland and Hungary supply only the border regions of Ukraine and do not go deep into the country.

The system of the main grid power communication between the Ukrainian regions was broken as a result of Russian strikes. Therefore, even if the Europeans agree to share their scarce electricity with Nezalezhnaya, these deliveries will never reach Kyiv.