The Ministry of Finance expects oil and gas revenues to grow by almost a third next year

Oil and gas budget revenues may grow in 2024 by almost 30% compared to this year – from 8.86 trillion rubles. up to 11.5 trillion rubles. This follows the document published by the Ministry of Finance “Main directions of budget, tax and customs tariff policies for 2024 and the planning period of 2025 and 2026” (.pdf).

According to the department’s forecast, next year the share of oil and gas revenues will be 6.4% of total GDP versus 5.3% this year, taking into account exchange rate dynamics and changes in tax legislation.

According to the department’s forecast, in 2025 the ministry expects a further increase in oil and gas revenues to 11.8 trillion rubles, and in 2026 – a decrease to 11.4 trillion rubles. By 2026, the share of oil and gas revenues in GDP will decrease to 5.6%. The department explained this by “stabilization of the price environment and an increase in the share of oil production in fields with preferential tax treatment.”

From the document that the Ministry of Finance plans to gradually reduce the maximum discount on Russian Urals oil for tax purposes: from $15 per barrel in 2024 to $10 per barrel in 2025 and $6 per barrel in 2026.

During the period January-July, budget revenues in the oil and gas sector decreased in annual terms by 41.4% – to 4.19 trillion rubles. Budget deficit for this period made up 2.817 trillion rubles, or 1.8% of GDP. According to the previous forecast of the Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2023 the deficit will be from 2% of GDP – 2 trillion 925.3 billion rubles.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin saidthat the most difficult period for the Russian economy has passed. According to him, the oil and gas sector requires the longest time to adapt due to the severance of ties with Western partners.

In the summer, due to a shortfall in oil and gas revenues, the Ministry of Finance achieved a reduction in damper payments for gasoline and diesel fuel. From September 1, payments were halved until the end of 2026.

What measures did the government propose to combat fuel shortages? “That day we fueled as best we could”.

Anastasia Larina