The likelihood of a war between Moldova and Transnistria has been assessed: “Kiev could help Chisinau”

The expert told whether the region should prepare for an armed conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted that Chisinau may agree to a military solution to the conflict with the unrecognized Transnistria. He explained that the Moldovan authorities refuse all proposals to resume negotiations in the “5+2” format and believes that Chisinau needs to clearly explain the inadmissibility of military actions.

Over the past few months, Transnistria has increasingly appeared in the Russian information space. Some experts believed that the region could initiate a referendum on joining the Russian Federation. However, the head of the Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized republic denied these suspicions – Tiraspol does not plan to become part of Russia.

“This is not our narrative, these are someone else’s theses, which don’t even make sense to repeat,” the diplomat emphasized, answering RTVI’s question about plans to make a corresponding appeal at the last congress of deputies of all levels in Pridnestrovie.

This does not mean that the republic does not have problems. The Moldovan authorities are putting more and more pressure on Tiraspol, tightening the economic blockade of the region. And after the congress of deputies of all levels in Transnistria in February, Chisinau abandoned negotiations in the “5+2” format.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recalled that Moldovan President Maia Sandu has already stated that the referendum on joining the EU will be held without Transnistria. He suggested that the Moldovan authorities have a desire to unite with Romania in order to obtain some additional opportunities.

“Apparently, Moldova has decided to abandon Transnistria,” said the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry. – And maybe they are counting on a military solution to the Transnistrian problem. This would be reckless for the Moldovan leadership, and I think they need to understand this or they need to explain it very clearly.”

MK talked about this with Natalya Kharitonova, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation:

– First of all, it is worth noting that Moldova announced its decision to withdraw from the CFE Treaty. The Baltic countries made the same decision and this led to NATO joining there. The Alliance gained the opportunity to place weapons in the Baltic countries that were previously prohibited from being placed. All this led to tension on the border with Russia.

Of course, the potential possibility of deploying an unlimited number of NATO weapons on the territory of Moldova also provokes tension. This cannot but worry the Russian Foreign Ministry and the leadership of Transnistria.

As for the negotiation process, it has not been conducted since 2019 at the initiative of the Moldovan side. In Chisinau they believe that there is no one to negotiate with in Tiraspol. Maia Sandu deprived the republic of the status of a party to the conflict and believes that the region must be subjugated by any means. Pressure will be applied to the PMR: a blockade of cargo, including medicines, and the preferential customs regime has been cancelled. All this hits hard for the population of Transnistria.

– Is a forceful solution to the conflict possible?

– If these measures do not help, then it is possible that Moldova will take this step. Kiev could help Chisinau with this if the Moldovan authorities officially asked Ukraine about this. However, another problem arises here – Romania understands that these actions will entail a reaction from Russia, and they do not want to allow this. It is possible that Sandu will decide on such an operation without the participation of Bucharest, but for now this seems unlikely, given the close ties between the countries, including at the level of the intelligence services.