The Kremlin does not yet plan to change governors, who will face elections in 2024

Vladimir Putin continued his series of meetings with governors facing elections this year: on Monday he spoke with Igor Babushkin (Astrakhan region) and Andrei Bocharov (Volgograd region), and both received the go-ahead for nomination from the president. Kommersant’s sources say that, most likely, the same will happen with all other heads of regions whose terms of office expire this year. The issue will be resolved separately regarding the Governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, but Kommersant’s interlocutors are inclined to believe that he will retain his position. Nevertheless, a certain rotation in the gubernatorial corps is possible after the inauguration of Vladimir Putin on May 7, if some of the regional leaders are promoted to the government or, conversely, someone from there is delegated to governors.

On April 15, Vladimir Putin met with two governors who are facing elections this year – Astrakhan resident Igor Babushkin and Volgograd resident Andrei Bocharov. Both meetings followed a similar scenario. The heads of the constituent entities began with reports on the situation in their regions and future plans. Mr. Putin, in turn, asked them additional questions about those indicators that seemed to him not good enough. So, he asked Mr. Babushkin about the reasons for the slowdown in construction and drew attention to the problem of worn-out networks, and with Mr. Bocharov he talked about the falling birth rate in the region and the high proportion of dilapidated housing. The end of both conversations was devoted to the elections. Andrei Bocharov directly asked the president for support, and Vladimir Putin wished him good luck. In the case of Igor Babushkin, the president himself raised this topic and also wished the governor success. Moreover, in both cases, Mr. Putin specifically mentioned the importance of contact with people.

Let us recall that Vladimir Putin began a series of “pre-election” meetings with governors shortly after winning the presidential elections on March 17, talking with the head of Bashkiria Radiy Khabirov, governors Alexander Osipov (Trans-Baikal Territory), Valery Limarenko (Sakhalin Region) and Georgy Filimonov (Vologda Region). The first three have their first term of office expire this year, and Mr. Filimonov was appointed acting head of the region on October 31 last year and must confirm his status in direct elections in the fall. Traditionally, such meetings remove doubts that the governor will run for a new term. So far, in September 2024, 19 heads of regions will have to confirm their powers: 16 of them must go through direct elections, three through voting in parliament.

Three Kommersant sources close to the presidential administration claim that all other governors with their terms expiring this year will also run for re-election, unless, of course, some extraordinary situations occur.

Kommersant’s interlocutors traditionally stipulate that for now this is only a preliminary scenario. An equally traditionally special place in these arrangements is occupied by St. Petersburg, which is now led by Alexander Beglov: in relation to his hometown, the president usually makes a decision separately, based on his own motives. Although, most likely, Mr. Beglov will also remain in his current position, Kommersant’s sources believe. However, one of them stipulates that there is no final “political decision” on the fate of the St. Petersburg governor. “But (pre-election— “Kommersant”) the headquarters is already being assembled there and they are starting to work,” the interlocutor adds.

Kommersant’s sources also note that some replacements in the governor’s corps may occur after the inauguration of President Putin, scheduled for May 7, when the procedure for forming a new government begins. This is due to the fact that some regional heads appear on the list of potential candidates for promotion: among them, Kommersant’s interlocutors name Vladimir Solodov (Kamchatka), Anton Alikhanov (Kaliningrad region) and Alexey Dyumin (Tula region). In addition, reverse situations are also possible, when someone from the current government is delegated to become governor.

Let us recall that the rotation of governors (primarily those whose term of office is ending) is most often carried out in the spring and autumn. In some years, these replacements were so widespread that experts even dubbed them “governor’s downfall.” The fate of certain leaders, in particular, may be affected by their fulfillment of target indicators set by a special presidential decree, as well as the current ratings of the authorities in a particular region. Typically, federal authorities try not to nominate governors with poor sociology scores for elections, although, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, there are some exceptions.

The stability of the current governor’s corps is explained by several reasons, says regional policy expert Vitaly Ivanov.

First of all, he reminds, the overwhelming majority of the current regional heads were selected with the participation of the current internal political bloc of the Kremlin, and he simply does not need to replace people close to him who already meet all the requirements for regional leaders. For example, almost all of them took special management courses at the RANEPA Higher School of Public Administration, which experts call the “school of governors.” “Most of those whose terms of office are expiring are graduates of the “school of governors”, former technocrats. They all run for second terms. The exceptions are either those who have particularly distinguished themselves and thereby earned the right to third terms, like Andrei Bocharov, or those who from the very beginning were nominated in a special order due to the importance of the region, like Alexander Beglov,” explains Mr. Ivanov, confirming that the decision on St. Petersburg is always accepted separately. At the same time, now the presidential administration need not worry too much about the sociological indicators of regional heads, since the electoral machine of power has been built as efficiently as possible, the expert adds.

Since the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko as first deputy head of the presidential administration, the gubernatorial staff has been seriously updated, agrees political scientist Alexander Nemtsev. “There are practically no old-time governors who have been in office for many years. There are no serious failures in the work of governors either. As well as electoral problems among regional heads – due to the foreign policy situation and lack of competition,” the expert argues. But the departure of one of the regional leaders for promotion is quite possible, especially since “at one time, new technocratic governors were brought into the region under the story that this would be a springboard for their future career,” notes Mr. Nemtsev. As for “high-profile resignations,” they can only happen in the “black swans” mode—“if a corruption scandal or something similar is discovered somewhere,” the political scientist summarizes.

Andrey Vinokurov