The IMF noted the resilience of the Russian economy to sanctions – Kommersant
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The Russian economy, contrary to earlier forecasts, turned out to be more resistant to sanctions. This assessment was presented by experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in reporton the economic situation in Europe.
The IMF materials say that after a sharp fall in the second quarter of 2022, the Russian economy managed to recover in the third and fourth quarters. Over the past year, the decline in production decreased to 2.1%. In 2023, the IMF expects GDP growth of 0.7%.
The IMF notes that improving trade performance and robust oil exports led to record oil and gas profits and supported the economy last year. “Russia’s ability to redirect commodity exports from countries that have imposed restrictions to countries that have not done so is supported by independently obtained and unofficial data,” the IMF draws attention.
At the same time, the IMF report emphasizes that it is too early to assess the impact of sanctions on Russian oil products. However, at the moment, there have been no sharp cuts in oil supplies, but the discount on Russian fuel has increased.
The IMF also believes that due to trade and financial sanctions, limited access to advanced technologies, and a palpable loss of human capital, Russian output in 2027 will be 8% lower than forecast before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. Exact figures are not given in the report.
11 April IMF updated assessment of Russia’s economic growth. The fund now projects Russia’s GDP to grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. According to the official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development of September 2022, the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2023 will decrease by 0.8%, and in 2024 it will grow by 2.6%. The Bank of Russia expects the dynamics of GDP this year from -1% to +1%.
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