The IEA records an increase in oil supplies from Russia to unnamed ports

Russian exports of oil and petroleum products in January remained at a level comparable to December – both in terms of supply volume and the amount of export revenue, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Against the backdrop of increased secondary sanctions against the owners of tankers transporting Russian oil at prices above the ceiling, and problems with making payments for it, the share of deliveries without a specific port of destination has sharply increased – the unloading of these ships may correct the current data on Russian oil exports to individual countries.

A slowdown in demand for oil in the world is noted according to data for the fourth quarter of 2023 – the growth rate of its consumption decreased from 2.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in July-September to 1.8 million b/d in October-December. says in February report IEA. In 2024, total demand growth could decline to 1.2 million b/d from 2.3 million b/d in the past – a weaker forecast due to a lower estimate for consumption in China.

Oil supply in January decreased by 1.4 million bpd amid a decline in production in both the United States and OPEC+ countries. Let us remind you, at the end of 2023, OPEC+ countries agreed to introduce production restrictions in the amount of 2.2 million bpd. In particular, Saudi Arabia continued to adhere to a production reduction of 1 million bpd, Russia promised to expand the limit to 500 thousand bpd.

Production in Russia, according to the IEA, in January decreased by only 40 thousand b/d, to 9.44 million b/d. The volumes of Russian exports in January also changed slightly – deliveries amounted to 7.7 million b/d (oil exports decreased by 1% – to 4.84 million b/d, oil products – increased by 0.5%, to 2.85 million b/d /With). Revenue from the sale of these energy resources, according to IEA estimates, increased by 1.4% month-on-month, to $15.7 billion, amid a slight increase in prices for petroleum products (the revenue level has not changed for the third month in a row).

In January, Russian oil supplies were carried out at a price above the ceiling of $60 per barrel set by the G7 countries; prices for petroleum products, on the contrary, were below the ceiling (with the exception of naphtha exports).

The price of Urals oil rose over the month from $60 to $66 per barrel, but by the beginning of February it dropped again to $61.8 per barrel, the IEA notes. The Urals discount to Brent remained at about $18 per barrel, and for ESPO oil (supplied via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline) increased from $5.6 to $6.6 per barrel. The discount on this oil has grown amid problems with supplies through the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks (which also affected the rise in global freight costs).

The strengthening of secondary US sanctions (they affected, in particular, companies owning tankers that were used to transport Russian oil; difficulties with settlements were also reported in January) probably affected the dynamics of Russian supplies to India – in January, exports decreased to 1 .5 million b/d (in November – 1.4 million b/d, in December – 1.7 million b/d, in January-October – an average of 2 million b/d). Shipments of Sokol oil (supplied from Sakhalin) fell to zero in January, but partially resumed in February.

The discount for Russian oil supplied to the ports of the west coast of India to the Dubai grade has decreased to $1.7 per barrel – this potentially reduces the advantage of Russian suppliers.

The volume of oil with an undesignated unloading port also increased sharply – back in November it was estimated at 0.2 million b/d, in December it increased to 0.4 million b/d, and in January – already to 0.9 million b/d ( this is more than 10% of all Russian exports).

Total supplies of oil and petroleum products from the Russian Federation to China decreased from 2.3 million to 2.2 million b/d (this is 300 thousand b/d less than a year ago, but after the unloading of some gray tankers, the figure may be higher), The volume of exports of petroleum products to Turkey turned out to be a record – in January it amounted to 510 thousand bpd.

Tatiana Edovina