The houses are over – Newspaper Kommersant No. 233 (7434) of 12/15/2022

After the February peak in the volume of commissioning of individual housing construction (IZHS) of 7 million square meters. m indicator throughout the year gradually decreased and literally collapsed in November to 1.7 million square meters. m. This is almost three times lower than last year and previous months. The catastrophe may be “paper” – the basis for the current figures a year ago was the rapid growth caused by the post factum registration of houses already built before, it was also stimulated by the simplification of the procedure for registering rights to individual housing construction objects. But the actual slowdown in the construction of new private houses also clearly contributed to the November collapse in the statistics of individual housing construction.

The volumes of commissioning of IZhS objects, as follows from the operational data of Rosstat for January-November, showed very ambiguous dynamics throughout the year. On the one hand, the sector grew compared to last year’s data and kept the entire housing construction sector in the positive zone until October (see Kommersant of December 1). On the other hand, after the February peak, when 7 million sq. m, IZHS in monthly dynamics showed a gradual slowdown, starting in September to slightly lag behind last year. But in November, the commissioning of such housing completely failed – up to 1.76 million square meters. m, which is approximately three times lower than in November 2021 and October of this year (5.2 million sq. m and 5.1 million sq. m). This also led to a decline in the entire housing construction sector by almost 40% – in November, 5.4 million square meters were commissioned. m.

Since 2019, the individual housing sector has grown quite significantly – if then, for example, in January-November, 32.4 million square meters were commissioned. m, then in 2021 – 46 million sq. m, and in 2022 – already 56 million sq. m. This is due not only to the actual growth in the construction of private houses, the demand for which was fueled by the pandemic and preferential mortgage programs, but also statistically. It was already noted earlier that about a third of the commissioning of individual housing construction is due, in particular, to the registration of earlier buildings (after numerous extensions, benefits are valid until March 2031). Simultaneously with the simplification of the very procedure for registering houses, authorities over the past years have encouraged citizens to register the property they have built – in particular, by tightening the requirements for connecting to networks and the free gasification program, which also requires registration of property rights.

Against this background, the observed dynamics of the commissioning of individual housing construction may be associated with a complex of factors – “paper” factors coincided with a slowdown in construction. As Nikoliers partner Vladimir Sergunin notes, for a long time there was an active “amnesty” for the commissioning of built houses – the effect could simply have exhausted itself. In addition, “citizens could put the construction of houses on pause, for example, due to problems with the supply of materials.” As Mr. Sergunin expects, by the middle of next year, IZHS may resume growth. Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge, HSE University, agrees with this: citizens “were motivated to decorate the houses they built as soon as possible.” But a complete failure of 65% in November, Mr. Ostapkovich emphasizes, while it is “difficult to explain”, it is worth waiting for at least the data for December.

According to the National Agency for Low-rise and Cottage Construction, it can be assumed that during the six months to a year preceding November, construction began in much smaller quantities than before. Also, for some reason, the owners do not want to documentally complete previously begun construction projects (for example, because of the desire not to take into account the remaining months for paying property tax). The reasons may also be the general economic uncertainty in the spring of 2022 with a delay in the launch of new construction projects. Sin and weather anomalies. “A statistical outlier cannot be ruled out – observations of the introduction of IZhS are only three years old, and such a protracted spring and early climatic winter as this year has not been, according to weather forecasters, for 20 years,” the agency notes.

Evgenia Kryuchkova, Oleg Sapozhkov