The growth of incomes of Russians turned out to be a one-time statistical phenomenon

In its report on the socio-economic situation of the country for the first quarter of this year, Rosstat published the main parameters of the current life of ordinary Russians. All in all, they are hopeful. After the fall in real incomes of the population last year by 1%, the first quarter of 2023 started with their growth. According to the statistical agency, the real disposable income of the population during this period increased by 0.1% in annual terms. Progress is evident, although, of course, not enough, we all expected more.

If you really look at the growth of our income in the first three months of the year, it is actually difficult to see them even under a very powerful microscope. 0.1% in annual terms is, according to rough estimates, 0.025% per month. Money in the wallet from such growth will not particularly increase. After all, consumer prices for products are rising much faster. Over the last week of April, sugar has risen in price by 0.7%, pork by 1.15%, and onions by 12.6%.

Well, okay, you and I are no strangers to the rise in price of products. The main thing is that our incomes grow behind the prices in the retail network, so that there is no gap between them. And with them, incomes, trouble, last year they fell again. Fortunately, they are starting to grow. And then after all, you will soon have to go to the store with almost an empty wallet.

This, by the way, is confirmed by dry statistics. According to Rosstat, in March of this year, retail trade turnover decreased by 5.1% compared to March 2022. Although then, as the reader remembers, because of the collapsed ruble, some prices rose by 2-3 times. Many of our fellow citizens at the trading shelves had only to lick their lips.

Now the situation seems to be stabilizing, even revenues on a monthly basis increased by 0.025%. But many people refrain from shopping. What can we expect by the end of the year?

The Ministry of Economic Development in its forecast states that the growth of real incomes of Russians – and not by thousandths of a percent, but more – is not far off. Thus, this year this figure will rise to the level of 3.4%, and in the next three years it will be 2.6-2.7% per year.

It is difficult for a simple man in the street to imagine how, in the remaining nine months, incomes will grow to the level promised by officials. What economic miracle is to take place?

For advice, “MK” turned to the candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev.

“In terms of the level of real incomes of the population, the first quarter of the year is not particularly indicative,” he explains. – During this period, the country’s economy traditionally pauses. Everything is in a heap: New Year holidays, February 23, March 8 … The number of working days is small, and therefore the salaries are low. All hope for the next calendar months is that the economy will begin to unwind. As they say, a Russian peasant harnesses slowly, but drives fast.

— The forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development are impressive: already this year real incomes are expected to grow by 3.4%. How is this possible if in January-March the growth was only 0.1%?

— It all depends on the state of the economy, on how fast it will develop. Calculations usually proceed from the assumption that inflation will remain at today’s rather low level.

Now the president and the government were “slapping the necks” of officials and businessmen, and they began to stir. In the country, the minimum unemployment rate, at 3.5%, began to grow, though not by much, wages, and competition appeared in the selection of personnel. But how long such activity will last – that is the question. It is quite possible to ensure the growth of real incomes of the population by 3.4%. But it is only necessary to give incentives to manufacturers, to choose the right keys.

– Can we say that a trend in income growth has begun and we see the long-awaited stabilization?

— No, this is still a one-time statistical phenomenon. The growth trend should demonstrate its sustainability in many key indicators, this is a complex analysis. We must understand that this is not a conjuncture, not a simple coincidence of circumstances. GDP growth, employment, inflation – and not for the entire range of goods that Rosstat considers, there are about 300 of them. But for the inflation that we call domestic, everyday. It is necessary to navigate and analyze the stability of these indicators.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29024 dated May 5, 2023

Newspaper headline:
Incomes grow slowly, but quickly spent