The grain deal will be discussed before the end of its term

A new round of negotiations on the extension of the Black Sea grain deal (participating in the UN, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey) on the export of agricultural products from southern Ukrainian ports in exchange for the removal of restrictions on Russian agricultural exports will be held on May 3. The meeting will be attended by “all parties,” Reuters reported May 2, citing sources. The agreements, extended in March at the request of Moscow, not for 120, but for 60 days, will expire exactly two weeks later, on May 18.

The press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, answering a question from Vedomosti on May 2, told reporters that in the field of extending the deal, “the dialogue will continue,” although he did not confirm the negotiations on May 3. According to him, the time remaining before the termination of the agreements is “shrinking like shagreen leather,” and “the terms of the deal have not been fulfilled in the part that concerns the Russian agricultural sector.” “Contacts continue, but so far they have not brought any results,” Peskov said.

Earlier, on April 30, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, in an interview with Habertürk TV channel, announced trilateral negotiations on a deal “in the coming days” at the level of deputy ministers. Officially, the foreign ministries of Russia, Turkey and Ukraine did not announce the meeting.

Vedomosti sent a request to the UN Secretariat, as well as to the Russian and Turkish Foreign Ministries.

Russia agreed to another extension of the Black Sea grain deal concluded in July 2022 on March 14. Already on April 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, said that if the obstacles to the implementation of the Russian part of the deal to lift restrictions on the export of fertilizers and agricultural products are not removed, Moscow will work outside this initiative, including Turkey and other partners. Ankara, however, continues to insist on extending the deal, assessing it as a “success” and a demonstration of the “work of diplomacy” in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

On April 13, the Russian Foreign Ministry formulated five conditions for extending Moscow’s participation in the agreement: reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT settlement system; the resumption of deliveries to Russia of agricultural machinery, spare parts and service, which fell under Western sanctions; abolition of restrictions on insurance and reinsurance of Russian grain ships and removal of the ban on their access to ports; restoration of the work of the ammonia pipeline Tolyatti – Odessa; unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies associated with the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.

On April 25, Lavrov said that the situation around the agreement and the implementation of the Russian part had reached an impasse. Three days later, on April 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a telephone conversation with UN Secretary General António Guterres, announced Ankara’s readiness to participate in the working group to unblock the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. On the same day, Cavusoglu said that the UN had sent the leaders of Turkey, Ukraine and Russia a roadmap for the implementation of the grain deal, which spelled out key proposals, including for the supply of ammonia.

The most difficult issue is the restoration of Russian ammonia exports through Ukrainian territory, experts say. If it is settled, the grain deal will have a chance to be extended, Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, believes: “But Kiev is still resisting, and Ankara does not have sufficient leverage on it in the issue of the ammonia pipeline, although it demonstrates its readiness to contribute to resolving the situation “. Russia, on the other hand, has not gained anything from the deal in its current format, it makes no sense for Moscow to extend it in this form, Nadein-Raevsky is sure.

Erdogan’s statements about his readiness to assist in the restoration of the ammonia pipeline are not accidental. Turkey is one of the main political beneficiaries of the grain deal, it allows to strengthen Turkish positions in global politics, political scientist Yashar Niyazbaev believes. “The deal has a positive effect on the image of the Turkish state, especially in Africa, with which it is rapidly developing economic ties,” he said. In addition, the grain agreements demonstrate Ankara’s independence within NATO.

Ankara also receives economic dividends from the grain agreement, continues Nadein-Raevsky. He recalled that Turkey is the largest consumer of Russian agricultural products: about 70% of Turkish bread is baked from Russian flour. This was confirmed to Vedomosti by the President of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin. “Therefore, Turkish consumers can be seriously affected if the negotiations fail,” concludes Nadein-Raevsky.