The government was asked to create a list of industries indicating the shortage of personnel

The New People party proposed creating a list of priority sectors of the economy and types of economic activity, indicating the shortage of personnel in each sector. A letter with a proposal to create such a list was sent to the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov by the leader of the “New People” Alexey Nechaev. Vedomosti has read the letter.

Now there is a shortage of personnel in certain sectors of the economy, the letter says. According to the monitoring of enterprises conducted by the Central Bank, the industry since the beginning of 2023 has experienced the lowest level of personnel in the last 25 years, and Reshetnikov himself said that by 2030 an additional 2.3 million personnel will be required.

The government is implementing a set of measures to eliminate the personnel shortage, but the process of taking support measures is not systematic, since there is no publicly available information about the criticality of the personnel shortage in various industries, Nechaev believes. And this leads to the fact that resources will be directed to those sectors where the shortage of personnel is less critical. For example, according to the Ministry of Digital Development, the Russian IT industry lacks 500,000-700,000 specialists; in 2022, the shortage was 1 million people, and experts believe that the shortage of specialists is 1.5 million. The situation is similar with specialists in the construction industry , according to “New People”: the Ministry of Construction said that there will be a shortage of 200,000 workers in 2023, and construction companies are talking about a shortage of 5 million workers.

“Neither universities nor high school students know which specialists are really in short supply now. The only people on everyone’s lips are IT people. However, in reality we lack industrialists, logisticians and professionals in other fields. We offer the ministry [Минэкономразвития] create such a forecast of staffing needs and include current data there. Then universities will be able to coordinate their educational programs,” Nechaev emphasized. Vedomosti sent a request to the press service of the Ministry of Energy to receive this initiative.

Nechaev proposed developing, publishing and monthly updating a list of priority sectors of the economy and types of economic activities with official information on the quantitative shortage of personnel. This will make it possible to organize a systematic process of identifying in-demand specialties and determining the reasons for the shortage of personnel, says the leader of “New People”. In addition, the list of vacancies and employment opportunities can be used by employers, students and specialists.

“New People” proposed maintaining a register taking into account current indicators. The party’s initiative is based on Vladimir Putin’s recent speech at the State Council on the topic of labor market development. The President said that the country has record low unemployment, but at the same time there may be a shortage of labor resources. Putin then noted that a five-year forecast of personnel needs at the level of the entire economy would be formed annually. The first such forecast will be presented in 2024. On its basis, the parameters for training personnel with secondary and higher vocational education will be calculated starting from 2025-2026, the president said.

“Our proposal is a direct continuation of the president’s instructions. It is not enough to formulate a forecast – no one knows what shortages there are in priority sectors today. Therefore, our request is based on current data, on the basis of which any forecasts can be made,” Nechaev explained.

Superjob founder and president Alexey Zakharov called the shortage of specialists “a normal situation for a vibrant and healthy economy.” “Thank God, there is a shortage of personnel in Russia. Because if there is no shortage of personnel, it means that the country’s economy is on its side at best,” he believes.

Zakharov noted a shortage of personnel in all areas. Its reasons are both the demographic gap and the consequences of Covid. “Part of the population has dropped out. Due to the pandemic, the country experienced a major restructuring of industries and the service sector began to develop at an accelerated pace, drawing in a huge number of people.” According to Zakharov, people who went to serve under a contract and were mobilized also “performed one or another role in the labor market.”

In addition, the founder of Superjob notes, “the opportunities to import cheap unskilled labor into the country have almost been exhausted.” “Everyone they could have already been brought in. Take Turkmenistan or Kyrgyzstan, for example – more than 50% of the working population of these countries already works in Russia,” he said.

As for the party initiative, Zakharov noted that he does not understand the meaning of this list. “Take, for example, the latest version of the Atlas of New Professions, in the creation of which about 2,000 experts participated. Look at these professions – you will laugh for a long time. The labor market is changing very quickly, so such a list will not help in any way to draw the attention of the younger generation to those professions and areas where there is a shortage of personnel right now,” he believes.

To solve the problem of personnel shortage, according to Zakharov, planning is needed. “Let’s say we have a shortage of unskilled labor in construction. Therefore, conditionally, we are stopping the teaching of mathematics, physics and chemistry at school, with rare exceptions, and reducing the teaching time for the majority to four classes,” he suggested. If the goal is not to overcome the personnel shortage, but to increase labor productivity, then we do not need unskilled labor, Zakharov continued. In this case, you need to “do everything with an excavator, not a shovel – that is, automate the work process as much as possible.” And then, “on the contrary, we need more physicists and mathematicians who will design and configure everything necessary.”

A historical minimum in unemployment and a general shortage of labor resources is a unique situation in the labor market in Russia, which has never arisen before, Vladimir Klimanov, director of the Center for Regional Policy of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation and head of the Institute for Public Finance Reform, Doctor of Economic Sciences, told Vedomosti.

The situation was significantly affected by partial mobilization and emigration within professional communities, the expert clarified. He noted that both processes caused entire working strata to drop out of overall economic activity. “As a result, we are experiencing a shortage of IT specialists, as well as representatives of professions common among the middle-aged male population,” says Klimanov.

One of the key reasons for the talent shortage is fundamental changes in the economy, he added.

“In connection with all kinds of economic processes – structural transformation and the transition to import substitution – there is a global shift in needs. Previously, managers were needed in the broad sense of the word – people who know how to sell or buy something. Nowadays, engineering specialties have become the most in demand – those professionals who know how to produce something. It is obvious that the labor market and the personnel training system will change dramatically in the near future,” the economist explained.