The goals of Mishustin’s visit to China are named: he will probe the topic “Forces of Siberia-2”

The Chinese market will be conquered by Russian bacon

Mikhail Mishustin left for a visit to China: this is his first trip in the status of prime minister to foreign countries. The head of the Cabinet, who is accompanied by an impressive delegation of officials and businessmen, will take part in the Russian-Chinese business forum in Shanghai and hold talks with top officials in Beijing. On the agenda is not only an exchange of courtesies and assurances of eternal friendship, but also problematic issues. Mishustin will try to achieve certainty on the Power of Siberia-2 project and increase the supply of Russian agricultural products to the Celestial Empire.

Mikhail Mishustin is going to China to show himself and see others. This task was partly accomplished during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in March: contrary to custom, the Chinese leader visited not only the Kremlin, but also the White House. However, the Russian prime minister is only familiar with his immediate counterpart, State Council Premier Li Qiang. On April 4, he called Li Qiang to congratulate him on his appointment to a high position, as well as arrange a personal meeting – at that time Mishustin already had a personal invitation from Xi to visit China “as soon as possible.”

It was decided to coincide with the visit, as in the good old dock-like times, a business forum – this expanded the composition of the Russian delegation to several hundred people. Together with the head of the Cabinet, three vice-premiers, five federal ministers, governors, several heads of large companies and many middle-class entrepreneurs are flying to China. (The organizers even had to charter a special flight to Shanghai to transport them.) The visit has already been dubbed an off-site meeting of the Russian government, and it’s not just about the composition and size of the delegation. The issues to be discussed in China are of paramount importance for the Russian economy and budget.

The name of the key session of the forum, which opens on May 23 – “Energy as a driver of Russian-Chinese cooperation” – in principle, objectively reflects the state of affairs. Deliveries of Russian energy carriers to the Celestial Empire are steadily growing. In 2022, Russia delivered 8% more oil to China than in 2021. And in the first 4 months of 2023, purchases increased by another 26.5%. LNG deliveries increased by 50% over the same period.

Russia is ready to further increase the volumes (especially since the income is not the same: for example, the sale of oil to China brought in 1.5% less dollars than much more modest deliveries in January-April 2022). But the Chinese are in no hurry to put their eggs in one basket, even despite impressive discounts. Oil is purchased from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Malaysia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. And Turkmenistan remains the main supplier of pipeline gas.

Mishustin will certainly try to test the waters regarding the “Power of Siberia-2”. It seems that all the parameters of the new route have been agreed upon, but the signing of an intergovernmental agreement will never come to fruition. (And experience shows that the Chinese can keep their Russian partners in such a state of limbo for several years.) As for the further growth of LNG supplies, the issue here depends on technology – Russia does not yet have its own large-tonnage liquefaction equipment. But China can help. Unless, of course, he wants to take the risk.

Another important session of the business forum for the Russian delegation is “Agricultural Dialogue: Current Challenges and Modern Solutions”. The most urgent challenge for Russia was the unprecedented grain harvest. But the “modern solution” to sell them in decent volumes to China has not yet been found. On the one hand, in January-April, Beijing seems to have actually increased purchases of Russian wheat by 60% compared to the same period in 2022, but acquired an insignificant volume – only 30 thousand tons, which is 0.5% of all imports (the main Australia remains the supplier). In March, at a meeting with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin said that “there are opportunities for a significant increase in the supply of meat, grain and other categories of goods to China.” And last week I was thinking about soybeans. However, the phytosanitary control of the Celestial Empire hinders the fulfillment of this task.

Mishustin will try to get Chinese partners to agree to the supply of winter grains (now only spring grains can be supplied from the Russian Federation to China), as well as beef and pork. However, the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor, Sergei Dankvert, has already advised Russian farmers not to count on success. Instead of supplying carcasses, which China prefers to buy from the US, Canada and the EU, it is better for them to shift their focus to finished products, the official said. For example, bacon, which is gaining popularity in China.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 29034 dated May 23, 2023

Newspaper headline:
What is the “Power of Siberia”, Si