The foreign trade surplus tends to the norm

The Bank of Russia published a preliminary estimate of the balance of payments surplus in January-November 2022 at $225.7 billion, emphasizing its more than doubling year-on-year growth due to a record growth in the surplus of trade in goods and services in a favorable price environment and due to a decrease in the cost of imports . The balance of the financial account is in positive territory, foreign assets are growing against the background of a decrease in the same liabilities (data will be available on December 30). In the third quarter, the data of the Central Bank recorded that, most likely, the sale of assets by non-residents in the Russian Federation dried up – net incurrence of liabilities turned out to be near zero after a decrease of $53.3 billion a quarter earlier.

The regulator’s disaggregated data indicate a continued reduction in the trade surplus — in November it reached its lowest level since June 2021 — $12.6 billion, analysts of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel note (see chart). The current account surplus fell to $10.3 billion (the lowest since May 2021) from $17.7 billion in October and $17.1 billion on average in the third quarter of 2022.

The sharp decline in imports of goods in the second quarter of 2022 was replaced by its gradual recovery, writes the Central Bank. However, according to Raiffeisenbank analysts, in the third quarter seasonally adjusted imports remained close to the level of the second quarter – $85 billion. The value of exports is declining from the peak in the first quarter of 2022. And if in the second quarter it was more related to the non-oil and gas sector (against the background of complication of logistics under sanctions), then in the third, on the contrary, it grew against the backdrop of parallel imports of equipment and components and rising prices, while the oil and gas segment sank, bank analysts say : ruble revenues to the budget from export duties on its goods in the third quarter decreased by about 40% compared to the second.

In the second and third quarters of 2022, the main factor that supported economic activity in the Russian Federation was a decrease in imports amid high export costs. The regulator’s baseline forecast, updated in October, assumed that with an average annual oil price of $80 per barrel, the surplus in the balance of foreign trade in goods and services in 2022 would be $305 billion. The December macroeconomic consensus forecast of the Central Bank sees the figure at $275 billion in 2022.

Artem Chugunov