The forecast of the ruble exchange rate for September is given: to level the situation before the elections

A long tradition: to “twist” the course, preparing for significant events

For some reason, analysts postponed the most gloomy forecasts for the ruble exchange rate to September. It was already decided in advance that he would definitely overcome the 100-ruble mark for an “American”. And then there were forecasts one bolder than the other: there will be 110, and even 120 rubles each … And now it has come, the first autumn month. What will happen to the ruble? Both on Wednesday, August 30, and on Thursday, the 31st, the ruble unexpectedly slackened at exchange trading, the dollar was quoted at the level of 96.56 rubles, for the euro, respectively, they gave 105.5 rubles. By the evening, however, the dollar had given back a little, to 95.84 rubles. However, the sediment remained.

We thought that our national currency, after its long fall since May, would finally stabilize. Let not at 60 rubles per dollar, as it used to be, but at least in the corridor of 90-93 rubles. The main thing is to have some certainty. And after a sharp increase in the key rate by the Central Bank, for several days he really heroically kept the defense in the range of 93-94 rubles per dollar.

And now… Analysts of the foreign exchange market note with concern that the dollar is strengthening slowly but surely, as they say, in any weather. Even in the third decade of August, at the very height of the tax period, when exporters increase their sales of foreign currency for ruble payments to the budget. And even when oil prices rose from $82 per barrel to $85 in the last week of the month…

– The exchange rate is connected with the general state of the economy, – argues the candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev. – The fact that the ruble has been consistently declining since May, that is, for four months in a row, indicates that there are certain failures in the country’s economy. Today, only the defense industry and budget financing of certain industries and national programs are operating at full capacity. And the rest of the areas are in depression. This resulting pause determines the devaluation of the ruble. In September, I do not rule out that the dollar will give 97-98 rubles, and maybe more. When the process goes on continuously for four months, it is naive to rely on, say, Indian rupees or tax payments.

According to Mikhail Belyaev, stock indexes are quite normal, they testify to certain pluses in the economy. But all this is happening thanks to the military-industrial complex, the fuel and raw materials complex, and the financial sector. However, it is impossible to transfer “points of growth” to the entire economy. Although there is no reason to hope that with a key rate of 12% the real sector will work. In a word, there are no prerequisites for strengthening the national currency under the current conditions on the horizon.

– A weak ruble is beneficial for both our Finance Ministry and exporters, – says another expert – financial analyst Sergei Drozdov.

– So, will it continue to get cheaper or is there hope for “light at the end of the tunnel”?

– Eat. I believe that already this autumn our national currency has every chance to strengthen to 87 rubles per dollar.

– Why such optimism? On the contrary, they are frightening, they are talking about an avalanche-like depreciation.

– Elections are ahead and the situation needs to be leveled. We have such a long tradition: to “twist” the course, preparing for some significant events.

– But a single voting day is already in a week, there is no time to twist it!

– Certain preparations will begin for the presidential elections to be held next spring. We have the upper limit of the currency range: 101.7 rubles per dollar, and we should be guided by it. At this point, the Central Bank began to act, to take measures against further weakening of the ruble. Our national currency can exceed this value only in the event of some major geopolitical events. The course will keep the corridor: at the bottom 95, and at the top of the extreme value of 101.7 rubles. If the ruble slows down at around 95, then we can wait for its gradual strengthening.