The first-ever China-Central Asia summit kicked off in Xi’an

China is taking another step towards increasing its influence in the countries of Central Asia. On May 18, the first face-to-face summit of the leaders of China and the five Central Asian countries opened in the Chinese city of Xi’an, which will last two days. In the 21st century this city, where the Great Silk Road began, turned out to be an important point for the main modern infrastructure project of the PRC – “Belts and Roads” (all countries of the region participate in it), which in 2023 turns 10 years old. Before the summit, Chinese media reported that Xi’an would become the first city in the Celestial Empire, from where it would be possible to get by plane to all five countries of Central Asia.

Prior to the start of the general meeting of the two-day forum, each of the Central Asian leaders held bilateral talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. At a meeting with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the parties approved the introduction of a visa-free regime for tourist and business trips.

The summit with the states of Central Asia is the first major diplomatic event in China in 2023 after the lifting of covid restrictions in the country. The Japanese publication Nikkei noticed that the event almost coincided with the G7 summit in Japanese Hiroshima (it will be held from May 19 to 21).

The main topics of the summit are traditional and new energy sources, trade, digital trade and security issues. Reuters analysts assume that the leaders in Xi’an will also discuss issues related to Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and reaffirm the thesis that the region should not be used by the US and other external forces for destabilization. As Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang announced, an “important” political document will be signed at the end of the summit.

Prior to the forum, on May 17, the General Administration of Customs (CCC) of the PRC released data on trade with the five Central Asian countries for the first four months of 2023, which increased by 37.3% compared to the same period in 2022 and amounted to more than 173 billion yuan ( $25 billion). In April 2023, their trade turnover exceeded 50 billion yuan ($7.12 billion) for the first time. In 2022, China’s trade turnover with the summit participants amounted to $70.2 billion. The volume of China’s direct investments in five countries of the region at the end of March 2023 amounted to more than $15 billion (primarily in infrastructure, oil and gas exploration, medicine, etc.). However, the summit participants are trying not to draw attention to the other side of cooperation, expressed in a large debt burden. Thus, 40% of the external debt of Tajikistan and 45% of Kyrgyzstan falls on Chinese loans.

Among the countries of Central Asia, the PRC has actively cooperated in the field of security only with Tajikistan. Western media wrote about the first Chinese “base” in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of this country, not far from the border with Afghanistan, back in 2018. The governments of both countries reject such rumors, but admit that one of the border facilities in Tajikistan was built with the help of China . In 2021, China allocated $9 million for the second such facility in Tajikistan. The People’s Armed Police of the People’s Republic of China (an analogue of the National Guard of Russia) also have a presence at the mentioned points, says Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE Central Research Institute.

For the states of Central Asia, building relations with the PRC does not exclude interaction with Russia, so Moscow and Beijing in this region are not competitors, but partners, says Yana Leksyutina, professor at St Petersburg University. According to her, both countries are interested in the infrastructure development of the region, the creation of transport corridors and other economic projects in it, therefore, many initiatives in Central Asia will be implemented through the combined efforts of Russia and China, for which the region is also of geopolitical value. The West is also aware of the growing importance of Central Asia and is trying to counteract the strengthening of Russian and Chinese positions there. Compared to Moscow and Beijing, the expert continues, the West is placing more emphasis on politics and strengthening public diplomacy, trying to promote its narratives among the population of the Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, such an approach cannot be of more interest to the states of the region than the proposals of Russia and China, cooperation with which promises tangible economic preferences. Coupled with unsuccessful attempts to split Russian-Chinese relations, the West’s prospects in Central Asia do not look so promising, Leksyutina concludes.

Officially, relations between Russia and China in Central Asia are “non-competitive in politics and competitive in economics,” notes Andrey Kazantsev, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, Doctor of Political Science. Politically, Beijing and Moscow have common interests in the region – reducing the influence of the West and fighting color revolutions. The West, realizing the growth of China’s influence in the region, cannot offer the Central Asian countries an attractive alternative. The main goal of Western policy, the expert continues, is to create a certain pole, which the countries of the region can orient themselves to. The West does not have enough resources for larger projects – for example, with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States simply stopped allocating enough money to work with Central Asia, Kazantsev sums up.