The financial sector increased its contribution to GDP due to the panic of customers
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According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimate, based on data on the output of basic sectors, GDP in the third quarter of 2022 decreased by 4% in annual terms against a decrease of 5.5% a quarter earlier, which corresponds to a contraction of the economy by 1.7% over the ten months . This assessment coincided with the expectations of the Central Bank and turned out to be better than the expectations of the Ministry of Economy (minus 4.4%).
Reduction of recession is fixed in the industry, agrarian and industrial complex, transport and construction. The decline was smaller than expected in IT, tourism and the financial sector, explained Polina Kryuchkova, Deputy Minister of Economic Development. Analysts of the telegram channel MMI calculated that, taking into account seasonality, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 0.2%. “The collapse was halted, helped by rising military spending, a record harvest and a rebound from an extremely low base in the second quarter in the auto industry and a number of other industries,” they explain, noting, however, that the economy shrank by more than 7% compared to the peak value of the fourth quarter of 2021. %. By the same amount, according to analysts, it will decrease in the next three quarters, which corresponds to a rollback of 11 years ago.
Bloomberg Economics economist Alexander Isakov, in turn, draws attention to qualitative changes in GDP using the example of the financial sector. In the second quarter, he created 1 trillion rubles. value added (23% less than the same period in 2021), but Rosstat estimated this as a real growth of 4.4%. The reason is the deflator (see chart). The price of financial sector services decreased by 26% year-on-year, that is, despite the drop in value added in current rubles, the “physical volume” of services rendered increased. “To simplify, to assess the added value of the financial sector, Rosstat deflates deposits and loans for consumer price growth, applying the percentage margin of last year to their value. In the second quarter, rates on deposits grew rapidly, on loans they changed little, and the “price of banking services” fell,” he explains, concluding: the growth of the financial sector does not mean that everything is fine in it. In other words, the panic of depositors in the second quarter de facto became one of the main reasons for the growth in the output of financial services. However, in the third quarter, the financial sector again declined, which looks like a mystery against the backdrop of a strong decline in inflation.
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