The fate of the ruble before the New Year has been announced: one step away from collapse

This week, the Russian currency exchange rate, which was previously at a relatively stable level of about 90 per dollar, began to flurry. Over the last two trading days, dollar quotes have risen above 92 rubles, and the value of the euro has exceeded the three-digit mark. Events taking place in the foreign exchange market make analysts wonder what will happen to the ruble before the end of this year – that is, in fact, during the remaining trading week before the New Year holidays. The range of possibilities is very wide: from strengthening the “wooden” to 85 per dollar to collapsing to 100 rubles for the “American”. MK asked financial analysts to share their forecasts: what course will we take when the chimes strike?

Alexey Krichevsky, financial analyst, author of the economic telegram channel:

“Until the end of 2023, nothing extraordinary will happen to the exchange rate. The movement corridor will remain the same – 90-93 rubles per dollar and slightly above 100 rubles per euro. Nothing will allow the ruble to fundamentally move from its current position: purchases for the New Year holidays have been “recaptured”, foreign currency earnings have been sold, and a reshuffle of the exchange rate in the interests of the budget is no longer necessary this year. Of course, some disturbances are possible, as a result of which Western banknotes may immediately rise in price, but these are, as a rule, short-term stories.”

Vladislav Antonov, financial analyst at BitRiver:

“Now the ruble is rather under some exchange pressure, but the peak of tax payments is planned for December 28. Over the week, Brent oil has risen in price by more than 4% and is now quoted at $80 per barrel. The rise in commodity prices was driven by fears of possible supply disruptions due to tensions in the Red Sea, as well as Russia’s decision to further reduce production of “black gold.”

Next week, the “wooden” exchange rate will remain around 90 rubles per dollar. Considering that market liquidity will decrease due to the holidays, it is likely to see spikes up to 93.5 rubles. As for the euro, its trading range will cover 100-102.5 rubles, and the yuan’s fluctuations will remain within 12.7-13.05 rubles.”

Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

“The tax period will affect the ruble at the end of December. This is a positive factor that supports the Russian currency.

Obstacles to the strengthening of the ruble may be the traditionally high demand for foreign currency in December, associated with payments under import contracts, long New Year holidays, during which Russians go on vacation abroad, and payments from the budget necessary for indexing pensions for non-working pensioners and social benefits.

There will be very few economic events during the New Year holidays. If any surprises are to be expected, then most likely they will come from the conflict-ridden Middle East. But, no matter what happens, it is possible that this instability will have a positive impact on the oil market and an increase in the prices of “black gold”, which, accordingly, will affect the strengthening of the ruble. The next OPEC+ reduction in oil production from January 1, 2024 will not have an immediate effect on the market. This event will first have to be reflected in the spot (exchange) market. This will not happen immediately – only at the end of the month. During the New Year holidays in Russia, the dollar will cost in the range of 89-92 rubles.”

Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets:

“The ruble exchange rate will be affected by the level of inflation, the size of the Central Bank’s key rate and the general state of the economy in the country and in the world. Some strengthening of the “wooden” market against the backdrop of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia has already occurred. True, a significant slowdown in inflation in our country has not yet been observed. Tension is growing in the labor market, and the population’s debt load is growing. From January 1, 2024, the ruble will most likely exhaust all disinflationary factors. His “profitable shelf” will last until the beginning of spring – then the opposite dynamics will occur. Today they are asking 92 rubles for a dollar, 101 rubles for a euro, and approximately 12.9 rubles for a yuan. Until March, the ruble exchange rate will remain at 87-89 rubles per dollar, 98 rubles per euro and 12.3-12.5 rubles per yuan. Then the quotes risk changing in a direction that is not better for the Russian currency.”

Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation:

“Russians’ New Year’s expenses, including on trips to foreign resorts, will take away large sums of foreign currency from the population. It is possible that the holiday discounts offered by retail chains will somewhat “calm down” the upcoming expenses of our compatriots. True, such pleasure will not last long: after the end of the winter holidays, Russians will have to be content with their modest savings, which will force them to exchange the remaining cash dollars and euros for their native rubles. In this case, the currency exchange rate may skyrocket significantly, and the quotes of “Americans” and “Europeans” risk strengthening above three-digit levels.”