The fate of the investigation into the Crocus terrorist attack is in the hands of Turkey

Erdogan has either a gigantic opportunity or a gigantic problem

Two quotes on the same topic. Turkish newspaper Hurriet, March 26: “Ankara has carefully studied all the issues related to these two people who came to Turkey and returned to Moscow, and is informing Moscow about all events.” The Kremlin’s message about the telephone conversation between Presidents Putin and Erdogan: “During the conversation, the Turkish leader emphasized the urgent need for closer bilateral cooperation in the fight against the terrorist threat. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude for the condolences and supported the idea of ​​intensifying cooperation in matters of countering terrorism.” Everything is official, everything is strict, everything is absolutely devoid of any sensational details or details. But the fact that such sensational details are not mentioned does not in any way mean that they do not exist.

Everything that is written below is at the intersection of political analytics and conspiracy theories at an amateur level and is based on several important assumptions. But for now we can only draw conclusions based on the information that is available at the moment. So, we know that at least two future terrorists were in Turkey before committing the atrocity. It is logical to assume that what they did in Turkey is directly related to what they did in Moscow after their return to Russia. Another completely logical assumption: if the curators, organizers and customers of the terrorist act “inherited” somewhere (and they could not “inherit” at all), then this place is also Turkey.

Turkish special services have now staged a raid on extremists. A post by the Minister of Internal Affairs of this country, Ali Yerlikai, on social networks: “One hundred and forty-seven people were detained as a result of operations carried out in thirty provinces against the Islamic State (a terrorist group banned in Russia – MK).” Such operations in Turkey are carried out on a regular, one might even say routine, basis. But the proximity of the two events in time – the March 22 terrorist attack in Crocus, the March 26 statement by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Ankara – indicates their connection. Such actions are in the interests of Turkey itself. Such actions are what Russia expects from Turkey. Finally, such actions are what the West expects from Turkey.

But then all these interests diverge—or, to put it more carefully, they may diverge. This Monday, Vladimir Putin announced the official position of Russia: the “radical Islamists” who carried out the terrorist attack are just a façade, behind which lies a completely different player who has resorted to the method of “conspiracy within a conspiracy” or “false flag operation.” If Moscow manages to convincingly prove that its suspicions are based on irrefutable facts, then in international politics this will be what in English political jargon is usually called a game changer – an event that radically changes the course of the game. It’s not for nothing that American officials repeat as usual, “Ukraine is not involved, period.” World public opinion chose not to notice or ignore proven cases of Ukraine carrying out smaller-scale terrorist attacks in Russia. But if it turns out that Ukraine is involved in this case, the reaction of world public opinion – including public opinion in leading Western countries – may turn out to be completely different.

The entire strategy based on the postulate “Russians are bad, Ukrainians are good” may be in jeopardy. In other words, the stakes are not just high, but prohibitively high. And if Moscow’s suspicions are justified, then it will be Erdogan who will play these bets. A “false flag operation” implies a thorough disguise of its organizers and customers. But any disguise has its vulnerabilities. And in the case of what we are discussing now, the threads leading to these vulnerabilities are located precisely in Turkey. Turkey is now a kind of Portugal during the Second World War, a neutral state in which all the forces and powers in conflict with each other are represented. Türkiye is a crossroads of worlds. People from various countries of the Islamic world, residents of Russia, and citizens of Ukraine who have the right to travel (an important privilege, given the actual closure of borders in Zelensky’s country) have free access there.

I will repeat once again my first main thesis: if convincing evidence of a connection between the Crocus terrorists can in principle be found, then the place to look is Turkey. What the terrorists themselves can admit to, the West has already written off in advance as a “fabrication,” referring to the harsh treatment of these “innocent lambs” during arrest. Yellow, but one must admit, quite influential German newspaper Bild, March 25: “Two have already given confessions. It is impossible to verify whether they actually committed a terrorist attack, since the Russian judicial system is controlled by politicians.” But if the Turkish security forces begin to pull strings and these strings lead to other strings behind which are hiding persons affiliated in one way or another with the Ukrainian authorities, then this can no longer be attributed to “politicians’ control over the Russian judicial system.”

But will the Turkish security forces want to look under every stone and pull every thread? This is actually a big question, an unanswered question that is directly related not only to the professional qualifications of the Turkish intelligence services, but also to big politics. There are too many nuances, too much that we cannot calculate. When it comes to relations with Russia, Turkey is out of step with the rest of the Western world. But at the same time, it is still a country of the Western world, a member of NATO and, albeit a rough one, but still a close ally of Washington. Turkey is also a geopolitical player whose interests are not at all served by Russia’s “overly convincing” victory in Ukraine. Of course, Erdogan is a strong and independent leader who loves situations that give him leverage over his Western “friends and partners.” But will this lever turn out to be too “hot” – something that the Turkish authorities would prefer to “ignore”? The question is still rhetorical. We do not know. We can only speculate, build versions and wait.