The far right has become the second most popular political force in Germany

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the second most popular party in the country for the first time. Her rating exceeded the level of support for the ruling Social Democratic Party, reaching a figure of 22% against 18% for the Social Democrats. This is evidenced by the latest data from the INSA surveys of July 22. Only the opposition conservative CDU/CSU bloc, which is supported by 26% of voters, is more popular. Other members of the ruling coalition – the Greens and the liberals from the Free Democratic Party – received 14 and 7% of the votes respectively.

The sharp rise in the popularity of the AfD, which other parties and the media accuse of neo-Nazism and refuse to cooperate with, is connected with the sharp dissatisfaction of the Germans with the current government. The main reasons for irritation are increased migration, high inflation and costly projects to combat climate change. According to INSA polls, 70% of Germans find the government’s performance unsatisfactory, and 60% are personally dissatisfied with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his policies. Earlier, on July 21, the chancellor had already expressed his opinion on the growth of AfD’s ratings. Describing what he called the country’s “greatest change since the industrial revolution,” Scholz described the AfD as a political force with a “bad temper” that “plays on citizens’ fears.” “I don’t need to explain what risks this brings, especially for Germany as a global open network economy,” Scholz concluded.

According to Bloomberg, German business representatives consider the AfD a threat to their interests. Such sentiments among entrepreneurs are also observed in East Germany, where the positions of the AfD are especially strong. For example, the head of the Saxon Family Business Association, Christian Haase, told Der Tagesspiegel that putting the ideas of the AfD into practice would cause significant damage to the economy. Leaving the EU and the hard immigration ban the party advocates will be the end of its economy, Haase said.

The AfD is known for its right-wing populist slogans: the party advocates tight control of immigration, is extremely skeptical of the European Union and even called for its dissolution. In 2019, the party was taken under the supervision of the internal intelligence service of Germany – the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, under which it remains to this day. The reason for this was the “right-wing extremist statements” of its members. The right-wing faction of the Krylo party, whose members adhered to neo-Nazi ideas, previously received special attention from the special services. The head of the “Wing”, a politician from Thuringia, Bjorn Höcke, was noted, in particular, by saying that the “reproductive behavior” of Africans will lead to overpopulation.

The strengthening of the AfD is already observed not only in the east, where the party is traditionally strong, but also in the west of Germany, said Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at MGIMO. The growing dissatisfaction of the Germans and, as a result, the growing popularity of the AfD are explained by the fact that the government does not have an understanding of how to get out of the crisis in the economy, migration sphere and foreign policy. In fact, the AfD is the only political force that is in opposition in all areas of the work of the Scholz government, which forms the sympathy of the Germans for it. According to the expert, even the AfD’s lack of work experience in the state and federal governments turns into a plus, because due to isolation, the party has no history of unsuccessful management decisions. Next year, parliamentary elections will be held in the federal states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, and it is quite possible that the AfD will gain so many votes that it simply cannot be ignored. The government, adds Sokolov, can only hope that AfD members will incur the wrath of the secret services by their actions or statements, which will lead to a ban on the party.

The growing popularity of the AfD in the east is indeed due to the distrust of the Germans in the ruling coalition, including due to the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the impoverishment of the middle class, agrees Alexander Kamkin, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS. The Germans are looking for an alternative to the current government and find the AfD – the political “troll” of the ruling establishment. Berlin, adds Kamkin, is very concerned about the jump in the ratings of the AfD and therefore is trying in every possible way to discredit the party. In the near future, the expert believes, a number of provocations against the AfD are possible – they put too much pressure on the German political class from the right. They can also ban the party, but this procedure will take a lot of effort and time, because according to the legislation of Germany, even an openly extremist party will not be banned quickly, the expert concludes.