The falling ruble has driven up real estate prices in Moscow

Reasons for the hype

In the middle of summer, there was an increased activity of both buyers and developers on the capital’s market of new buildings. Usually during the holiday season there is a temporary lull. This year, the summer calm could be forgotten. As Roman Rodiontsev, director of the Est-a-Tet project consulting department, told MK, in July the number of transactions increased compared to the previous month in Moscow – by 4%, in New Moscow – by 26%. Most of the apartments of the mass segment are now being sold in three districts: Pokrovskoye-Streshnevo, Ochakovo-Matveevskoye and Molzhaninovsky.

The July surge in demand in the real estate market stimulated the falling ruble. As Oleg Repchenko, head of the IRN.RU Real Estate Market Indicators AC, noted, during the second month of summer, the dollar exchange rate exceeded the “round” mark of 90 rubles. (+9.4% to the ruble), and the euro – 100 rubles. (+11.8%). “Those who saved up for real estate in foreign currency hurried to take advantage of the favorable rate for them. Owners of ruble savings also rushed to the market as long as there is “enough” for at least something or to invest depreciating capital in Moscow meters as an “eternal value,” the analyst explained.

In addition, in his opinion, demand in July was fueled by the expectation of an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank (at the end of July, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since February 2022). And although the primary market has a preferential mortgage, under the terms of which the growth of the key rate is practically not reflected, in Moscow the cost of a significant share of apartments in new buildings exceeds the maximum loan amount under preferential programs (12 million rubles). Therefore, buyers more often use commercial mortgages, the rates for which depend on the level of the key rate.

The concerns of citizens who wished to purchase new apartments with the help of housing loans turned out to be justified. In early August, a number of major banks either raised market rates on mortgages or announced imminent increases.

Unusual for July, a jump in demand in the primary housing market was quickly reflected in the price tag. According to the Managing Director of Metrium Ruslan Syrtsov, following the results of the second month of summer, the weighted average price of 1 sq. m in Moscow new buildings amounted to 300,720 rubles. (+2.6% per month, +4.8% per year). 78% of transactions were completed with the involvement of mortgages. “Buyers are accustomed to the fact that the price of an apartment or apartment purchased without a mortgage or installment plan can be 20-30% lower than for real estate with preferential payment terms, and developers are not going to abandon this trend,” the expert added. .

fresh winds

As Valery Kochetkov, director of the Novostroyki direction of the INCOM-Nedvizhimost company, noted to MK, recently there has been an outflow of customers from the new-build market to the secondary, since the price difference in Moscow between these two segments was up to 20% of the cost of an apartment. “Now, when the mortgage rate starts from 11.7%, and, possibly, will be higher, some clients will return to the market of new buildings. There is still a state program at 8% and a family program is 6%. There is also a reduction factor, for example, for electronic registration. The rate is reduced by 0.3%. Mortgage rates on the market for new buildings will be much more interesting, it turns out, twice cheaper,” Kochetkov said.

Another trend has gained momentum – since the beginning of the year, buyers of Moscow new buildings have almost ceased to be interested in small apartments, which were objects of investment in a growing market. “Now people buy housing mainly for themselves. Finished housing is in demand, especially if the developer offers an apartment with an already equipped kitchen – people respond well to such offers. Demand for studios has decreased, more one- and two-room apartments have been rented. Our clients, for example, are no longer considering 17-meter studios. If the studio – then at least 26 square meters. m, “odnushki” begin to consider from 40 sq. m, ”said Marina Shadrunova, a leading specialist in new buildings of the Miel network, to MK.

According to her, according to the statistics of concluded equity participation agreements (DDU), the average area of ​​purchased housing in July increased by 1 “meter” in old Moscow, to 48 square meters. m. In New Moscow, the average area of ​​purchased housing decreased by 2 “square” per month – up to 45 square meters. m.

“In pursuit of Moscow registration and profitable, relatively inexpensive offers, demand has shifted from the Moscow region and old Moscow towards the territories of the Tinao,” Kochetkov emphasized. According to him, now in old Moscow, buyers are offered 34.63 thousand apartments in new buildings, the average offer price of 1 sq. m. m is 362 thousand rubles, and the average purchase budget is 16 million rubles. In New Moscow, you can choose from 10.40 thousand primary apartments, the average offer price of 1 sq. m. m – 228.1 thousand rubles, and the average purchase budget is 10 million rubles.

“There is a period of stabilization of prices, volumes of supply, demand on the capital’s real estate market,” said Roman Rodiontsev. Despite the change in the terms of mortgage lending, mortgages still remain the main acquisition tool. “Further development and expansion of state-supported programs will help maintain stable demand. There are no prerequisites for price reduction,” the expert is sure.

Oleg Repchenko thinks otherwise. In his opinion, there are several factors that allow us to talk about a possible reduction in prices in the primary housing market in the medium term. One of them is that from October 1, new Central Bank restrictions on mortgages will come into effect, aimed at reducing the number of loans with a low down payment. Against the backdrop of more expensive mortgages, demand may decrease, and developers will have to revise prices. But not necessarily in the price lists, more projects with discounts may appear.

“In general, price dynamics rests on the actions of the authorities and the Central Bank. If the limits on subsidized mortgages are not extended (they may end in autumn), sales may drop sharply, housing prices, which are supported at a high level by subsidized mortgages, will also go down. But if the state, having extended the state program, introduces some other new program to stimulate demand, then prices will rise again,” Repchenko concluded.

Case Tips

When buying a new apartment, experts advise assessing the reputation of the developer, the risks of the project and the scheme of the transaction. “If you are offered to conclude a DDU with payment through escrow: this scheme is by far the most secure for a shareholder. If they offer an assignment agreement, then you need to check the payment of the DDU, otherwise the debt may pass to you. If they offer a contract of sale, then there is a possibility of debts on utility bills – you need to request a supporting document for their payment, ”said Valery Kochetkov. Particular attention, in his opinion, should be paid to redevelopment projects – it is important that each room has its own cadastral number. If they offer to buy a share, then it is better to refuse such a deal, even at a very favorable price.

When choosing a project, a lot depends on individual preferences. “In Moscow, a good location is traditionally important in terms of the infrastructural development of the area and the transport accessibility of the future home, so as not to spend half a day on the road,” Repchenko noted. “When choosing an apartment in a house under construction, it is important to study the reputation of the developer. It would be good if it is a well-known developer on the market with extensive experience and without serious delays in commissioning houses. And without deceived equity holders, of course, ”the analyst added.

“It is better to focus on developers who already have experience in successfully implemented projects, those who offer a wide range of acquisition tools (discounts, promotions, installments, subsidized mortgages),” Roman Rodiontsev added.