The expert spoke about changes in the well-being of Russians in the first days of 2024

“The ruble will lose strength, inflation will pick up speed”

The New Year for Russians traditionally began with an increase in income. The minimum wage increased by 18.5%, wages for workers in health care, culture, science, education, and social security increased by 9.8%; pensioners began to receive 7.5% more. But that’s where the good news ends. Along with the growth of salaries and pensions, traditional indexation of tariffs, costs of services and goods occurs. Socio-economic development expert and political scientist Oleg Maltsev told MK about what Russians should prepare for in 2024.

– Most of all, Russians are concerned about the rise in prices, which began in 2023. Will the negative trend continue in 2024?

– At the end of last year, inflation was recorded at 7.42%, but many citizens talk about much higher figures according to their feelings. In this case, both Rosstat, which announces official figures, and the Russians, who do not believe them, are right. It would seem like a paradox. But the fact is that to calculate official inflation, the “consumer basket” is taken into account, which contains a certain set of goods and services that are necessary rather for survival, so inflation can be different for each citizen. Depending on what goods and services he is used to consuming. In particular, in many regions of Russia, fares have increased by 8-15%. Travel on all types of transport has become more expensive in Orel, Tyumen, Kazan, Ryazan, etc. But in Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg, urban transport became more expensive in advance, back in the fall of 2023, so in these regions the price remained the same.

– What products and goods do you expect to increase in price in the near future?

– At the beginning of 2024, the largest price increases are expected for tea, coffee, confectionery, red fish, and dairy products. At the same time, retailers promise to curb the rise in prices for milk, kefir and fermented baked milk, compensating for them with higher prices for yoghurts, curd products, etc. Prices for these categories of goods may increase by 7-20%. This is explained by the high rate of growth in prices for raw materials. Also, since October last year, tariffs for road transport have increased by 25%, but sellers have restrained the increase so that it does not turn out too sharp, for example, as happened with chicken eggs.

– But there is also good news. Egg prices are slowly beginning to stabilize.

– Yes, there has already been a decrease of 3-5%. And, in the future, the prognosis is favorable. Eggs are not the only food item that has seen its price drop. Buckwheat, pasta, potatoes and margarine have fallen in price. In 2024, prices for these products should not increase. Manufacturers also promise a reduction in the cost of pork and chicken due to a drop in purchase prices within 4-10%.

– In general, can 2024 be called favorable in terms of growth in the well-being of citizens?

– It is unlikely. Probably, closer to the summer of 2024, we will again see a weakening of the ruble exchange rate, despite the fact that significant success has now been achieved in this regard and the national currency is at around 88 rubles per dollar. Many analysts suggest that in the second half of 2024 the price per dollar will again reach triple digits and exceed 100 rubles. This will be facilitated by the geopolitical situation and the preservation of the refinancing rate at a high level. In a situation with the weakening of the Russian ruble, prices for goods will inevitably begin to rise again.