The expert predicted Russia’s redistribution of the labor market: IT specialists will be replaced by entertainers

Professor Safonov spoke about the future of the professional paradigm: programmers will be replaced by psychologists

For the first time in a long time, the IT industry has become more prestigious in the perception of Russians than the oil and gas industry, and the profession of an IT specialist is preferable to a top manager, a survey of a popular employment resource showed. Respondents consider housing and communal services and retail trade to be the least prestigious sectors. Unusual trends in the labor market, at the request of MK, were commented by Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

– Starting from the 1990s in Russia, one can observe the third cycle of changing the professional paradigm, – the expert said, – If we take the 90s, then success in society was associated with three types of activity: work in representative bodies (deputies), crime and prostitution. The media said that it was in these areas that the biggest earnings. It can be said that these “professions” were actively advertised in the country as an example of successful receipt of funds. At the same time, the civil service was not quoted at all, because it was impossible to earn a lot of money there. People also practically did not look at working specialties for the same reason.

-If primal and prostitution were common in the 1990s, what came to the fore in the 2000s?

– Starting somewhere in 2010, the second cycle of labor preferences started. Here, law enforcement officers began to gain popularity. Career success and the possibility of getting big money were associated precisely with professional activities in this industry. News began to appear regularly in the media that a certain amount of money with many zeros was found with this or that security official. This is also a kind of advertising, demonstrating that big money is spinning in this industry. There was an idea that by getting a job in a law enforcement agency, you can earn good money. At the same time, working professions were again out of trend: wages there were completely uncompetitive.

– Now, obviously, the civil service is in trend: this is stability, a social package, plus a good salary. But how did IT specialists break out into the leaders of demand among applicants?

– In the current geopolitical conditions, work for the state, in the public sector ensures stability. But really, IT specialists came out on top. It didn’t happen in one moment. Interest in professions in this area developed gradually: they became more and more in demand and mass. There was a need for specialists in the field of mathematics, who develop the principles for the formation of information systems. Designers, programmers developing software design have become in demand. The demand for specialists who are engaged in setting up systems, monitoring security, and describing programs has also grown. Demand from the market formed high wages. But the consciousness of people snatches the tip of the iceberg. People look only at the most successful representatives of the IT industry and think that everyone who gives preference to this industry is waiting for big money and success. They are guided, for example, by Mark Zuckerberg or Pavel Durov. These faces represent classic success, their every move is followed by the media. This is how the demand for a profession is formed. Another reason for the growing attractiveness of the IT sector is the constant talk about artificial intelligence, which is supposedly about to replace everyone. All this fuels interest in the profession. But, one must understand that only highly qualified specialists are waiting for high salaries in this industry.

– But such a high demand cannot be endless – even on a global scale?

– Naturally. Gradually, the market is saturated. If we recall the early 1990s, then many many graduated from financial institutions: there was a high demand for economists. But when the demand for specialized specialists stabilized, the situation with jobs and salaries began to get more complicated. It must be understood that the demand for specialists from different segments of the IT industry will not be endless. For example, workers who service equipment are no longer in great demand. But top specialists will always be in demand.

– When will the mass demand for IT specialists slow down?

– It all depends on the demand of the economy. It is difficult to predict who will be in such high demand in 20 years. Maybe it will be super-psychologists, socializers who will save people from professional burnout and loneliness due to communication with artificial intelligence? Or maybe there will be a request for mass-entertainers who will again connect the disconnected destinies and souls?

– And yet, how many years do you give the leadership of the IT industry?

– For 10 years, it will actively develop, and then it will stabilize.