The expert predicted big changes in the real estate market: prices will fall by 20%

“Builders will be covered with a hangover after three years of feasting”

In 2022, the Russian real estate market has experienced a number of serious blows. The start of a special military operation and the announcement of partial mobilization led to the fact that at first mortgage rates rose, sales sank, and then there was a sharp rise in housing sales announcements. As a result, the year ended for the real estate market with supply exceeding demand, and prices were falling. Will this trend continue in 2023? What will the situation depend on? What risks remain? What will happen to the prices for new buildings, secondary housing, as well as suburban real estate? This was told to MK by a real estate expert, the author of the economic Telegram channel Alexei Krichevsky.

– What is interesting, important and significant worth highlighting for the real estate market in 2023?

– Firstly, developers will be covered with a “hangover” and depression after three years of feasting. The interest on subsidized mortgages was increased to 8, cunning programs with near-zero rates are also covered up, that is, now it will no longer be possible to enter an additional 20% of the cost of housing into its price at the expense of mortgages. Therefore, we can expect further consolidation of the sector, and almost the only real driver for it will be the state – from renovation to the integrated development of territories and the development of new regions. Secondly, the downward trend in prices for resales will continue and, possibly, even accelerate, as there is more and more supply on the market, both because of those who left the country and because of those who made a mistake with investments or do not pull monthly payments. by mortgage. Therefore, we can say that by the end of the year prices will drop by at least 7-8%, and at the most – up to 20%.

– So, this year housing in Russia will become more affordable?

– It depends on what is meant by the availability of housing. Will loans become more accessible? No, already now more than half of potential borrowers are deployed almost at the scoring stage (assessment of clients by banks). And it is unlikely that the Central Bank will sharply lower the key rate, so mortgage rates will be approximately at the same level as now, after another round of raising the minimum rates by top banks. Will housing become cheaper? Secondary – definitely yes, new buildings – rather yes, since developers will have to adapt to the circumstances. Country real estate will also gradually decline in value, as demand for it will fade, even despite preferential lending conditions for building houses.

– How is the situation with real estate in different cities of Russia – where is the most expensive housing, and where is the most affordable?

– The most expensive – obviously, in Moscow and the region, Sochi, Gelendzhik and St. Petersburg. Unexpectedly, Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region made it to the top – this is a resort town on the coast of the Baltic Sea. These are cities where a square meter costs more than 200 thousand. At the same time, it will not be difficult to find a city where the cost of a “square” will be below 50 thousand rubles – there are a lot of them.

When building your own home, you need to understand only one thing. If you decide that you have calculated all possible risks, have included all possible price increases for materials, labor, equipment in the estimate, add at least another 30% to it. After you recalculate, think about what is better – to buy a ready-made house or build your own. Everything is as simple as possible.

– What advice can you give for purchasing real estate this year – is it worth waiting for better times, and if you buy – when, what and where?

– There is no universal advice when buying real estate. The circumstances and financial possibilities of people are very different. Someone has made good money and can afford to upgrade their living conditions, not thinking much about the fact that tomorrow the apartment they like can fall in price by 15-20%. For some, expansion is simply necessary after adding to the family, someone is leaving with their parents or spouse. If there is a need to buy and there is an opportunity to buy an apartment, then you need to take it and buy it. But at the same time, remember that in the current situation, in the absence of effective demand on the market and a huge amount of supply, you can negotiate a very good discount for yourself. Sometimes it reaches 15% for an ordinary sale, and up to 30% for an urgent sale, especially if there is an encumbrance in the form of a mortgage.