The expert predicted a jump in alcohol prices by the New Year

Experts in the field of trade and economics unanimously urge Russians to buy alcoholic drinks for the New Year now, so as not to pay twice as much later. Due to the upcoming increase in duties in the near future, inexpensive wines from France, Italy and Portugal cost 300-500 rubles. prices may rise by 42–50%. What should you buy in advance for the New Year? MK looked into this issue together with experts.

– Do you expect prices for imported wines to rise? – I ask, under the guise of a buyer, a seller in a store of a well-known chain that also specializes in imported alcohol, buying at the same time prosecco for 1,690 rubles, since I’ve already stopped by.

– Yes, our prices change every day! – the seller answers. – It seems insignificant: by 30 rubles, by 50 rubles, but they are constantly increasing. Therefore, of course, it is better to buy wine for the New Year now. Look, this wine from Portugal (dry white) cost 400 rubles in the summer, and now it’s 800 rubles. It has never cost 800 rubles before! And we also have direct supplies from foreign manufacturers, and therefore there are no such markups as in large supermarkets.

The forecast sounds disappointing, but the seller continues to add fuel to the fire:

– What kind of cognac are you looking for? Such and such? (famous world brands). There will be no more of them,” the seller optimistically assures. – But these are also good and also French. Their manufacturers decided to continue cooperation with us, but they left…

If the upward trend in prices continues, then at the end of December you will have to spend 15-20% more on alcohol and gifts (for example, chocolates or sweet sets for children). For clarification, MK turned to Associate Professor of the Basic Department of Trade Policy of the Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov to Svetlana Ilyashenko:

– Why is wine becoming more expensive again?

– As a rule, increasing duties on imported wines is used to support and protect local producers. Tariffs help reduce the competition created by the presence of foreign wines on the market, which can help domestic ones. However, now we are dealing with a double effect: since August 2023, Russia has increased import duties, in particular, on alcohol products from the so-called. unfriendly countries. These duties will be in effect until the end of 2023 and are aimed at providing competitive advantages for domestic wines. In addition, some foreign producers either left the Russian market or stopped official supplies to Russia, which contributed to a favorable market situation for Russian drinks. And, of course, increasing import duties is an additional source of income for the treasury. A stable increase in duties has been observed since 2022.

– How much will prices for foreign wines increase in this case?

– Now retail chains sell imported alcoholic products imported at the “old” prices, so there will not be a sharp jump in prices by the New Year. However, the buyer will inevitably see a gradual increase in the price tag on the shelf for wines in the “middle price segment” by 30-40%, as retailers will try to compensate for the increase in purchase prices from distributors for new batches of goods. Some buyers, especially in the face of declining real incomes, will be forced to reorient themselves from imported products to wines from domestic producers.

– Let us remind you how to avoid running into a counterfeit?

– Regarding alcohol, the likelihood of purchasing outright counterfeit goods in the stores of large chain retailers is minimal. The fact is that retail chains work directly either with manufacturers or with official distributors. Firstly, it is cheaper to purchase goods in large quantities for a retail chain, and secondly, the fewer intermediaries the goods go through, the safer it is. It is also worth considering that large businesses are easier to control, including from the Rosalkogolregulirovanie, so network operators are unlikely to risk their “alcohol” license and deal with counterfeits on their shelves. Another thing is small shops, especially in small towns and rural areas. Unfortunately, the buyer there, due to lower solvency, is not so picky about alcoholic products, and control by government agencies is weaker.

Each bottle of wine must have a federal special stamp, and it can be checked online if you download a special application to your smartphone or go to the Rosalkogolregulirovaniye website and enter the brand number.

We strongly advise against purchasing alcoholic beverages, especially on the eve of the holidays, from online sellers. The fact is that, according to current legislation, the sale of alcoholic beverages remotely is prohibited. Of course, a buyer can find online stores of large retailers on the Internet and even place an order for alcohol, but only with subsequent pickup. Today there are no other legal opportunities to buy alcohol on the Internet, and the risk of encountering counterfeit, sometimes even dangerous to health, when purchasing through “gray” schemes is very high.

– What else is more profitable to buy now for the New Year?

– Integral companions of the pre-New Year bustle are increased demand and higher prices for goods. A reasonable consumer prefers to buy non-perishable goods, primarily alcoholic beverages, in advance, while retail outlets also offer a wider range of products, and large retail chains offer discounts. So if the consumer is confident that the stock of alcohol purchased in the fall will “survive” untouched until the holidays, then October-November is an excellent time to replenish stocks and buy gifts for loved ones.

Only if you buy chocolate and chocolate sets for gifts in advance, do not forget to check the production date and expiration date so that it does not expire by the New Year.

You can purchase canned vegetables in advance (green peas, corn – traditional ingredients for New Year’s salads, sunflower oil, soft drinks (juices). Those who are especially daring can buy raw smoked sausage with a shelf life of 3 months. However, you still won’t be able to save much. The price increase is partially offset by various discounts and promotional offers that large retail chains constantly offer.