The expert named the topics of possible negotiations between Putin and Erdogan: “The meeting will not be simple”

The date and place of the planned talks between Putin and Erdogan have not been officially confirmed by either the Russian or Turkish side. Various media sources report only that they should take place “in the near future”, and approximately this could happen in late August – early September.

It can only be said unequivocally that the grain deal (which was terminated on July 17 at the initiative of Russia) will become the central topic of the meeting between the two leaders. In the West (as in Turkey) the “Black Sea Initiative” and a return to it is a desirable goal. The importance of continuing this (doubtful for the Russian Federation) project can be judged by the material that appeared in The Wall Street Journal: “The United States is negotiating the development of grain export routes from Ukraine.” We are talking about some alternative ways of delivering agricultural products, and in addition to Washington and Kyiv, Ankara is also participating in the discussion.

There is no specifics there either, everything is at the level of discussions, but there is a tendency to revive the topic. Back in early August, the Hürriyet newspaper stated that the UN and Turkey are actively working to revive the grain deal, recognizing its importance for solving food security problems and ensuring stable grain prices on the world market.

But everyone remembers why Russia had to withdraw from the agreement – its conditions were not met. Erdogan himself once drew attention to this, saying: the restoration of the grain deal depends on the fulfillment by Western countries of their obligations.

“Recently, unfortunately, the principle of “the agreements must be fulfilled” has not been respected,” the President of the Republic of Turkey appealed to his allies. In his opinion, the countries of the West did not take any diplomatic steps to use the “positive atmosphere” that arose as a result of the grain deal, and achieve first a ceasefire in Ukraine, and then permanent peace.

Considering Ankara’s recent actions (for example, the same extradition to Ukraine of the commanders of the Azov battalion (recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation and banned. – “MK”), many questions arise: are these negotiations necessary at all, how effective they can be, what could be the fate grain deal and so on?It is important to realize that the situation is complex.Russian-Turkish dialogue is not limited to the issues of the notorious “Black Sea initiative.”

“The proposed creation of a gas hub in Turkey may be on the agenda,” said Turkish political scientist Kerim Has. – In my opinion, bilateral trade and economic relations are extremely important to discuss, because Turkey also benefits from parallel imports, and it is important for Russia to maintain the Turkish route for the supply of Western goods along this route. Last year, the volume of trade between the two countries peaked (at the end of 2022, this figure doubled and amounted to $68 billion. – “MK”), and this year, probably, it will increase even more. Now the Turkish economy is not in the best condition. It is important for the country to finance its economy, including at the expense of Russia.

In the regional context – Syria. This is also a priority. The process of normalization of relations between Damascus and Ankara has slowed down after the elections in Turkey. Given the statements of Bashar al-Assad last week, it is obvious that the Syrian leader is not going to meet with his Turkish counterpart in the near future…

Let us explain what the expert reminds about. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave an interview to Sky News Arabia last week. During a conversation with a journalist, Assad said that he did not intend to meet with the Turkish leader on his terms. The possibility of negotiations between the two politicians has been discussed for several months now, but there are no results yet. In March, Assad argued that the rendezvous could only happen if Turkish troops left his country.

Kerim Khas emphasizes that the key player and main mediator in the normalization of the dialogue between these countries is Moscow. Therefore, it is important to discuss this direction as well.

Another possible point of the dialogue between Putin and Erdogan is Karabakh, Kerim Khas believes: “In the last year and a half, Azerbaijan, in coordination with Turkey, has been increasing military-political pressure on Yerevan, benefiting from this. Pashinyan’s position (“thanks” to this pressure) has changed a lot… Here it is important to discuss the fate of Russian peacekeepers in the region.”

As for the issue of restoring the grain deal, here, the political scientist believes, Erdogan needs to find a more creative solution: “Without concrete steps to lift restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports, it is difficult for Moscow to return to an agreement. Erdogan will have to talk about this topic not only with Putin, but also to convince his Western allies (primarily Washington and London). It’s difficult”.

Kerim Khas believes that immediately after the meeting (if it takes place) one can hardly expect a restoration of the grain deal. Surely Turkey and Western countries still have to take some steps. The analyst did not rule out that during the talks the Russian president would directly express his dissatisfaction with the transfer of the commanders of the terrorist battalion Azov banned in Russia.

“The meeting will not be simple,” the expert predicts. – There are many topics, tense moments are also enough. On the other hand, both leaders maintain a dialogue and, in my opinion, they are not yet ready to break off relations. Given the interests of both countries, it is important to maintain this channel. Despite the fact that the meeting will be tense to some extent, the presidents will find common ground both in bilateral relations and in the regional conflict.

Erdogan’s role as a mediator is important not only for the Turkish leader himself, but also for the West. Thus, one open channel of communication with Russia is preserved. Plus, according to Kerim Has, it is beneficial for the West that the Russian Federation has more ties with the NATO country: “Relations between Turkey and Russia affect many regional issues. For Moscow, in turn, it is important in the current conditions to export its gas through Turkey. “Tie up” Moscow with Ankara is in the interests of Great Britain and the United States. It is also important for the West that Russia does not become heavily dependent on China. The Russian-Chinese alliance is more dangerous for them than the Russian-Turkish one. Erdogan has a lot of room for maneuver in relations between the West and Moscow.”

– Can Turkey offer some alternative grain deal during negotiations with Russia?

So far, no concrete steps have been taken. I don’t think it’s hard if you want. If the West wants to restore the grain agreement, then it is easy to allow Rosselkhozbank to return to the SWIFT system. They can do it, but in my opinion they don’t want to. Erdogan may just try to convince the allies to lift the existing restrictions. At the same time, he can offer Moscow to facilitate the export of Russian grain through Turkish territory, to provide the Russian Federation with a transit platform for the supply of Russian agricultural products to the foreign market.

Do not forget that during the period of the agreement, Turkey received a discount on the purchase of Russian grain and fertilizers. It is now important for Erdogan to receive a continuation of this discount before the local elections in March 2024. Now it is important for him to reduce the price of bread. Of course, we cannot know all the details, but Erdogan can offer Moscow some practical solutions for the supply of Russian agricultural products both to Turkey and to the foreign market. Even if Russia does not agree to return to the grain deal, Erdogan may offer something else. We can see positive steps in the supply of Russian fertilizers in cooperation with Turkey.