The expert assessed how “slightly” the American crisis will hit our oil industry

– Of course, if the US Federal Reserve fails to stop the current financial situation, then this may lead to a growing crisis in the American banking system. And any crises lead to a recession and, accordingly, to a drop in demand for energy resources, including oil.

– But oil prices have already gone down, although the crisis of the US banking system is still far away.

– The worst thing for a trader is the stability in the market. Therefore, they use any occasion to play on the price. Today, oil prices are affected not so much by the bankruptcy of several US banks, but by the incomprehensible situation with the Fed’s interest rate. The market has fears that it will be raised, which means that there is a possibility of a fall in consumer demand, which could lead to a recession of the entire economy.

But even if everything goes according to a bad scenario in the States, the Chinese economy, on the contrary, is on the rise, the restrictions associated with the pandemic have been lifted, which means that energy demand will grow. Actually, this is why oil prices have been holding at $80 since autumn and are not falling.

– Do these price fluctuations affect us in any way? Or do we have a ceiling of $60 above which we can’t jump anyway?

– 60 dollars is not about us at all, it is rather about them. They need it for some reason, and we sell it in a way that suits us. Maybe 60 dollars worth of oil in the port of Novorossiysk, but when it reaches India, it costs all 80.

– Well, and who will pocket the difference of 20 dollars: dealers, carriers or our company?

– If the margin of $ 20 goes to carriers and resellers, this does not mean that they are not ours. “Ours” can be not only “from Russia”, but also registered in some Hong Kong, but these are also “ours”. Of course, the difference in price per barrel when a tanker leaves a Russian port and when it enters a port of destination somewhere in Southeast Asia is very different. This difference ends up in the pockets of traders and shipowners. But who, one wonders, are these people, who is now transporting Russian oil?

– Partly Sovcomflot…

– Yes, and partly the shadow fleet, the number of ships of which is constantly growing, but where did these ships come from? It took billions of dollars to buy hundreds of tankers. Such huge amounts of investment could not come from the air, they had to be accumulated from somewhere – all this suggests that traders trading in Russian oil are very close to Russia.

– So these are also our Russian companies?

– Yes, but registered in other jurisdictions – that’s all.

– If you listen, then everything is fine with us with oil sales. And if you read other analysts, then everything is terrible. According to these estimates, we have already lowered prices almost below the plinth, and still we have to reduce production by 500 thousand.

– You need to believe only trusted experts, and not politicized ones, like Bloomberg, who first estimated our December sales at $40, announced a drop in prices for Russian oil by almost 2 times, and then after a while a new article came out, in which already says that, it turns out, Russian oil went in December not at 40, but above 70 dollars. The guys changed their shoes in the air, changing prices, too, in fact, 2 times.

“And yet we are reducing production.

– We do not have a drop in production, these 500,000 barrels, which are now being discussed, we did not produce even before the sanctions. All our oil finds a market, we have no problems with overstocking. And behind the diesel there is a line of buyers from the Middle East, it has become a scarce commodity, because with our discounts they are ready to take millions of tons, just give it.

– Nevertheless, reports about tankers with Russian oil or diesel for a long time in ports appear in the press from time to time. Is this also fake?

– Maybe they are, but the reason is not that our oil is not needed or they are afraid to buy it at a price above the $60 ceiling. The reasons may be different: maybe they are negotiating with buyers, or they are waiting for the price to rise. Recently, our tanker was in the Emirates, while some buyers were collecting money or bargaining, others came running and said: let’s take everything at your price. Because it is still more profitable than the Saudis are selling.

— So, we are still dumping?

– There are discounts, but they are not like any Bloombergs draw at $ 30-40, but real – a maximum of 10%.

– That is, we sell oil at a bargain price, and discounts give us an advantage over competitors?

– Of course, given that the discounts given by the Saudis do not exceed $1-1.5. Our discounts are $5-7, they can reach up to 10. But not 30 or 40 dollars. But the fact that oil money began to go differently is a fact. Therefore, on April 1, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation decided to change the taxation system. The budget has always been guided by the oil prices given by Western price agencies. But now there is no such reliable information. Because, as I said, at the exit from our port the price is the same, and at the entrance to the buyer’s port it is completely different, this difference of 20-30 dollars has become opaque for the Ministry of Finance. It goes to traders, owners of ships, this is a separate stream of money that evades taxation. It turned out that the main victim is our budget, but not because we trade oil poorly or do not want to buy it, but because part of the income has gone into the shadows.

– And what’s the way out?

– The physical volumes of oil leaving the country are known. Therefore, taxes will be calculated according to the scheme – the price of Brent oil minus the officially fixed discount.

– That is, taxes will be calculated according to this scheme, and not on the discount with which our oil will actually be sold?

– Of course, the price of Brent is always transparent, the discount for our oil is set by the Ministry of Finance, so that all cash flows from the sale of Russian oil will be visible.