The EBRD has significantly reduced the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded the growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy in 2023 from the previously expected 25% to 8%. This is stated in the updated forecast EBRD. The Bank’s forecast that Ukraine’s GDP will shrink by 30% this year has not changed.
“For 2023, the EBRD has lowered its economic recovery forecast to 8% from the higher 25% envisaged in May, when significant recovery work was expected to be underway. The downgrade is a sign of how much uncertainty about the future is affecting Ukraine’s economic outlook.
According to EBRD analysts, due to hostilities in Ukraine, the country’s GDP decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022 and by 37.2% in the second quarter. “Economic activity has been severely disrupted even in regions where there has been no fighting due to logistical problems, financial difficulties and labor shortages,” the bank said.
In early September, Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to the President of Ukraine, said that the maximum size of the country’s GDP was recorded in 2021 – about $ 200 billion. According to him, this amount was expected to increase by at least 6-7% in 2022. Mr. Ustenko also added that the Ministry of Economy is evaluating a possible restoration of the previous level of Ukraine’s GDP within three years after the cessation of hostilities.
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