The EAEU is not for sale – Newspaper Kommersant No. 142 (7343) of 08/06/2022

Over the ten years of integration (2012–2021), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) increased industrial production by 20%, but due to the policy in this area that is not always coordinated, this growth had almost no effect on such a key indicator as the share of mutual trade in total trade five countries. Over the past decade, it has grown from 13.5% to only 14.6%, according to data published by the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC). Kazakhstan and Armenia increased their turnover most dynamically. Russia has the smallest share of intra-union trade – about 9%, the largest – in Belarus – more than 50%. At the same time, in both countries, this indicator has changed minimally over the years.

The Eurasian Economic Commission summed up the results of ten years of integration of the EAEU countries – as follows from the statistical collection prepared by it, in 2012-2021 the total GDP of the Union countries grew by more than 10%, which is comparable to the EU indicators for the same period, but significantly lags behind results, for example, BRICS, which demonstrated a GDP growth of more than one and a half times. According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the GDP of the EAEU countries amounted to $471.8 billion, which is 3.6% more than in January-March 2021. However, taking into account the impact of sanctions on the economies of Russia and Belarus, overall GDP is expected to decline by 6.1% this year.

To ensure macroeconomic stability, the leadership of the “five” seeks to increase the production potential of the EAEU and to expand the intra-union market. As follows from the EEC data, industrial production in the union increased by 20% in 2012-2021. However, as is known, the industrial policy in the EAEU is not synchronized, which, in particular, led to the creation of duplicating industries, as well as to a discrepancy between the structure of exports and imports of the Union countries.

The trade relations of the EAEU states, it follows from the presented statistics, remain more focused on third countries, and not on partners in the “five” – ​​in 2021, the share of mutual trade within the union amounted to 14.6% of its total turnover. In 2012, this figure was 13.5% – growth over the decade is hardly impressive. Such a share is clearly insufficient to ensure the stability of the domestic market – in similar associations it is about 40% (see Kommersant of February 26).

Over ten years, the volume of the union’s foreign trade with third countries decreased from $938.8 billion to $846.4 billion – its peak values ​​fell on 2012-2014, after which, in 2015-2016, the volume of trade with countries outside the EAEU fell sharply and since then time to recover.

Mutual trade, although it also “surrendered” strongly in 2014-2016, at the end of 2021 slightly exceeded the value of 2012 – $73.1 billion against $72.1 billion. “five” from 49.5% in 2015 to 50.5% in 2021. Kazakhstan and Armenia, although less dependent on trade with the countries of the union, increased its share much more dynamically – from 20.8% and 26.3% in 2015 to 26.1% and 35.3% in 2021 . In Russia, the share of intra-union trade is the smallest in the EAEU and has grown insignificantly over this time – from 8.1% to 8.9%. It should be noted that not all countries in the “five” showed a positive trend – in Kyrgyzstan, on the contrary, the share of trade with the EAEU countries (albeit a very significant one) decreased – from 44.3% to 41.1%.

This year, the leaders of the Union countries have repeatedly announced their intention to qualitatively increase mutual trade – by harmonizing industrial policies and plans to replace about a quarter of the imports of the “five” with products from the EAEU countries (see “Kommersant” dated June 21). However, for closer trade interaction, it is necessary to overcome the existing trade barriers, which have been a painful problem for many years due to the formality of approaches to its solution. Another factor hampering integration is the hardly advancing creation of common markets, especially gas and oil. However, yesterday the EEC announced a “high degree of readiness” of the draft agreement on a single oil market – the countries “brought their positions closer” on controversial issues of providing services for its transportation. It is alleged that part of the disagreements on the terms of payment for services on the common gas market, as well as on the understanding of the market price for gas, have also been resolved.

Evgenia Kryuchkova