The dollar will again be worth 100 rubles: the exchange rate forecast for 2024 has been given

The weakening of the domestic currency in 2023 was a record in eight years

Over the course of this year, the ruble has weakened by almost 30%. This is the worst result for the domestic currency since 2015, when the ruble weakened by 31.4%. According to the Moscow Exchange, on the last trading day of 2023, the dollar was worth just over 90 rubles. The domestic currency broke the mark of 100 rubles per dollar in 2023 twice: in October and in August. Before this, the dollar was seen at such a height only at the end of February and March 2022, that is, after the start of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the introduction of “nuclear” sanctions. Should we expect another weakening of the ruble to the “psychological” three-digit level in the Year of the Dragon? “MK” addressed this question to experts – financial analysts.

Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

“We assume that already in the third or fourth quarters of 2024, Russians will again be able to see the dollar at 100 rubles, if they do not extend the decree of the Russian President “On the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters on the stock exchange,” which ends in mid-April 2024. This decree was aimed at strengthening the value of the Russian national currency, thanks to which from mid-October to the end of August it rose in price by more than 11%. After its completion, a foreign currency deficit may again begin to form on the stock exchange, since due to a decrease in export revenues and an increase in import volumes, the current account surplus of the balance of payments of Russia’s trade operations is reduced. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, during the period from January to November 2023, it decreased by more than 4 times, to $50.5 billion. Next year, the same sharp reduction is not expected, since there will be no effect from last year’s high base. However, import volumes into the country will continue to grow. All this is pushing the ruble to weaken.”

Ivan Zakharov, General Director of the Admiral management company:

“The dollar at 100 rubles in 2024 is a very likely event. I consider a realistic corridor of 90-100 rubles per unit of US currency over the next year. The weakening of the ruble may be associated both with a decrease in global prices for hydrocarbons and with a further complication of life – that is, working conditions – for oil and gas exporters from the Russian Federation (then they will again have to make additional discounts and expect a decrease in revenue). In general, the state benefits from a weak ruble – this will reduce the budget deficit. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2024 to be 90.1 rubles. But, as we often see, they are wrong with course forecasts. However, there is a high probability that by the date of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation (March 2024), the exchange rate will be strengthened or stabilized in one way or another, after which it will smoothly adjust back.”

Andrey Loboda, economist, director of communications at BitRiver:

“We do not expect the dollar to cost 100 rubles, since next year we predict trading in the range of 85-95 rubles per unit of American currency. Among the negative factors that may affect the decline in Russian currency quotes: the geopolitical situation, possible new sanctions against Russian business, “black swans” (unexpected events that break all analysts’ forecasts – “MK”), which we do not yet suspect, the likelihood of a fall in oil prices, the expected abolition of requirements for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters and the possible transition of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to easing monetary policy (that is, to a cycle of reducing the key rate – “MK”)”.

Alexander Shneiderman, head of sales and customer support department at Alfa-Forex:

“In 2024, the ruble may not receive significant support from oil prices due to the risks of a decline in its value on the world market. Considering the discount between the Brent benchmark and the Russian Urals mixture in the range of $12-15 per barrel, this factor is already partially taken into account in exchange rates. A significant strengthening of the national currency can only occur with a sharp increase in hydrocarbon prices above $100 per barrel in Brent. It is predicted that the oil market in the new year will probably not stay above $90, which will create conditions for lower prices in the range of $65-70 per barrel Brent. For now, we don’t expect a dollar to sell for 100 rubles, especially in the coming days after the January holidays. A corridor of 87-94 rubles per dollar is possible.”