The dollar is falling on speculation around the new measures of the Central Bank

Market participants consider the impact of the Central Bank’s decision on the key rate to be insufficient to support the ruble and expect other support measures, including the return of the mandatory sale of export earnings. Already only speculations on this occasion led to a fall in the dollar exchange rate below 95 rubles / $. Due to the active transition of companies in foreign economic activity to rubles and currencies of friendly countries and changing conditions, the effectiveness of such measures will be lower than last year. However, analysts allow the dollar to fall below the level of 90 rubles/$.

After the rapid leaps caused by unscheduled meeting The Central Bank, exchange trading in currency on August 16 began in a more relaxed mode. At the opening of the main session, the dollar rose to 97.5 rubles / $, which is 40 kopecks. higher than Tuesday’s close, but quickly returned to the previous day’s close. However, in the afternoon, the depreciation of the US currency accelerated. By 15:00, it reached 96 rubles/$, and by the close of trading it had rolled back to 94.67 rubles/$. The volume of trading in the American currency decreased, but exceeded 125 billion rubles.

An active bearish game for the US currency was caused by the publication of the Financial Times that Russian President Vladimir Putin will convene an emergency meeting with representatives of the executive branch to discuss additional measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market. In particular, according to the British newspaper, the meeting could consider the proposal of the Russian Ministry of Finance to oblige exporters to sell up to 80% of foreign exchange earnings within 90 days after delivery. “The sharp weakening of the ruble in the previous days caused a great public outcry, so the authorities are forced to take action,” said Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

Currency market participants expected that part of the measures to support the ruble would be announced following the results of the Central Bank meeting held the day before, but the regulator limited itself to raising the rate. “Now the market expects that the authorities will return the requirement to exporters for the mandatory conversion of foreign exchange earnings,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

Dmitry Babin does not rule out that many exporters are already selling foreign currency to fulfill their fiscal obligations, fearing that it will become even cheaper.

The government used similar tools last year to stabilize the situation, and then the dollar exchange rate fell from 120 rubles/$ to 50 rubles/$ in four months. However, oil prices at that time were much higher, as was the volume of Russian exports, but imports were at minimal levels due to the break in trade chains. Therefore, even if all support measures are taken, analysts do not believe in a repetition of the scenario of the past year.

“We expect Brent oil to remain in the range of $70-90 per barrel until the end of this year, Russian exports will remain lower due to existing sanctions, imports remain high due to economic growth, the current account surplus will shrink to $45 billion this year , and we do not expect a repetition of severe capital restrictions, as in 2022, ”says Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

The problem for the market may be that exporters continue to keep part of their foreign exchange earnings abroad.

According to the Central Bank, they convert the currency imported into the country by 80%. An additional problem may be the active transition to the currencies of friendly countries, not all of which are freely convertible.

“This measure is not able to fully protect the ruble from possible shocks. Another measure to increase stability could be the tightening of restrictions on the withdrawal of foreign capital from the Russian Federation,” notes Vladimir Evstifeev.

At the same time, market participants expect further strengthening of the ruble and stabilization of the exchange rate at a more fair level, far from peak values. “If the authorities’ decisions to protect the ruble match expectations, and Russian oil prices remain at $70 per barrel, this will help the dollar return to the range of 87–92 rubles/$,” believes Vladimir Evstifeev. Mikhail Vasiliev in the base scenario foresees the average dollar rate at the level of 93 rubles/$ in the forecasts for the third quarter, and 95 rubles/$ for the fourth quarter.

Vitaly Gaidaev