Oil companies may lose the damper for August with a further rise in diesel fuel prices

The exchange price of diesel fuel has come close to the level, above which oil companies may lose damper payments within a month, which will halve since September. Diesel fuel quotes continue to rise sharply for the second week in a row, despite the fact that the emerging strengthening of the ruble may reduce the attractiveness of exports compared to supplies to the domestic market. Kommersant’s interlocutors in the fuel market do not expect a quick stabilization of the situation against the backdrop of a continuing shortage of diesel fuel and problems with logistics.

Wholesale prices for summer diesel fuel, following the results of trading at SPIMEX, have crossed another record milestone. On August 16, they rose by 1.49% on the index of the European part of Russia and almost reached 67 thousand rubles. per ton. Gasoline also became more expensive: AI-92 fuel increased in price by 1.08%, to 62.4 thousand rubles. per ton, grade AI-95 – by 0.77%, up to 69.3 thousand rubles. per ton. But if gasoline quotes gradually, with periodic fluctuations, nevertheless moved away from the highs reached on July 24 at 64.9 thousand and 69.9 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, the price of diesel has been steadily growing since the beginning of August (from 1 to 16 August – by 15.8%).

Similar dynamics is observed in the retail sector. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the average price of diesel fuel at filling stations accelerated the growth rate, having increased by 0.63% over the week from August 7 to 14, to 65.3 rubles. per litre. A week earlier, the rise in price was 0.17%. At the same time, since the beginning of the year, diesel fuel has risen in price by only 1.4% (for comparison, AI-95 gasoline – by 6.2%) with a general cumulative inflation of 3.5%. However, the increase in prices in the wholesale link will force gas stations to more actively shift their costs into the final cost of fuel in the coming weeks.

At the exchange itself, the active growth in the cost of diesel fuel is associated with a 50% reduction in damper payments to oil companies scheduled for September. The mechanism for subsidizing sales of petroleum products on the domestic market is designed to prevent shortages and strong price fluctuations in Russia. The budget compensates oil companies for 65% of the difference between the indicative price of the domestic market (for 2023 for diesel fuel is 53.85 thousand rubles per ton) and the export price. At the same time, the damper is reset if prices on the domestic market exceed the indicative price by more than 20% – this is done to ensure that oil companies keep prices on the domestic market even if export prices rise sharply.

Thus, if the average price of diesel fuel in August exceeds 64.62 thousand rubles. per ton, companies will lose tens of billions of rubles.

Thus, in July the budget paid 110 billion rubles to oil companies under the damper, and August payments due to the weakening of the ruble should be even higher. The head of “Analysts of Commodity Markets” Mikhail Turukalov notes that it will be enough to reset the damper if the cost of diesel fuel on the stock exchange this week rises to 67.5 thousand rubles. per ton and will remain at this level until the end of the month.

According to Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of Petroleum Trading, in addition to the forthcoming decrease in the damper, the cost of diesel fuel is affected by the devaluation of the ruble, as well as the growth of world quotations. “Devaluation has sharply increased the export alternative, and deliveries to the Russian market are less attractive. Since the damper is paid only according to the European index, and at the beginning of the month it was at the level of 57 thousand rubles. per ton, then we can increase by another 5-7 thousand rubles, and the oilmen will still get a damper. Then they can increase volumes and keep the index at the desired values,” he believes. The expert recalls that 50% of the produced diesel fuel is exported from Russia, so it will not be difficult for oil companies to add additional volumes to the market. Thus, oil companies are already threatened with the loss of a damper for gasoline, so in recent days they have been making efforts so that the exchange price of AI-92 does not exceed 62.6 thousand rubles. per ton.

Mikhail Turukalov agrees that the three main factors behind strong price growth are the weak ruble, high world market prices and the damper cut in September. “Now, against the backdrop of the current situation, it is very profitable to export stock volumes of diesel fuel for export,” the expert says. In addition, he notes, there are a number of fundamental problems in the market leading to shortages, which are unlikely to be solved in the near future. First of all, these are great difficulties with the shipment of petroleum products by rail. The situation is additionally complicated by the withdrawal of a number of plants for repairs, which will continue in September.

Olga Mordyushenko