The dollar is again preparing to storm the 100-ruble milestone: what to expect in September

By the beginning of autumn, the ruble found itself in a kind of “half-position”. It does not fall as sharply as in the first half of the month, and no longer strengthens, as it did after the Central Bank’s emergency rate hike on August 15. The current level of the exchange rate is about 95 per dollar and 105 per euro. The whole question is where the currency pendulum will swing further – downward, or, conversely, increase. What factors and how will affect the ruble in September and what quotes can we expect in the near future? Mark Goykhman, an analyst at Capital Skills Financial Academy, told MK about this.

– What is happening with the exchange rate on the stock exchange?

– After sharp jumps in the dollar up and down in early August, from the middle of the last month of summer, there was a gradual, “creeping”, but steady growth. He raised the quotes from 92 to 96 rubles. by September 1, which again revived the assumptions about a possible assault on the sacramental boundary of 100 rubles. The fact is that the main drivers of the weakening of the Russian currency will begin to appear in the fall.

– And what factors in the coming month will have the greatest influence on the ruble exchange rate and in what direction?

– First of all, the relative reduction in the income of hard currencies from export earnings. One of the manifestations of this factor is the decline in oil sales to India due to a decrease in the amount of discounts to the price. Deliveries to this country, which has become one of the main consumers of Russian raw materials, fell by 24% in August compared to July. In addition, the observed economic slowdown in China can weaken the demand for raw materials from Russia.

In addition, the ruble is negatively affected by the rise in imports for the autumn-winter season with an increase in the demand for hard currencies. Plus, the increase in inflation, noted by the Central Bank as a powerful factor in pressure on the ruble. The federal budget deficit has not disappeared either, stimulating an increase in the money supply in order to cover its expenses and requiring a weakening of the ruble to raise the ruble revenue of exporters and treasury revenues. In the same row, the desire for an outflow of currency from the country on the part of Russians and non-residents, both in terms of the withdrawal of assets, and because of uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

– All these factors, as I understand it, work against the ruble. Are there any that he can rely on?

– First of all, this is the presence of a boundary of 100-101 rubles designated by the authorities. per dollar, the achievement of which in August caused a clear rejection and sharp countermeasures from the Central Bank and the government. If the rate approaches this border again, investors will be more cautious, being wary of new measures by the monetary authorities. Moreover, in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are widely discussing ways to prevent a significant fall in the ruble. Including a new increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, restrictions on the purchase and withdrawal of foreign currency, and stimulation of additional sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. An increase in sales of foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund could also be considered, although this is likely only as a last resort and not on a permanent basis. The gradual effect of the already made increase in the rate to 12% should not be underestimated, since it has a certain time lag and can manifest itself in the fall.

– Can external markets support the ruble, for example, in the event of an increase in oil prices?

– Yes, an increase in energy prices is quite likely due to the policy of OPEC + and Russia to reduce oil supplies. But it may not take place if there is an economic slowdown in Asia and Europe. In addition, the possible weakening of the dollar on the world market may play in favor of the ruble if the US Federal Reserve announces the end of the period of tight credit policy and high rates in the fall.

– So what is the balance of positive and negative factors for the ruble? Will we see the dollar at 100 and the euro at 110 in the coming days, weeks or months?

– The probability of this is not excluded, especially closer to the end of the year. In September it is smaller. And it can be both short-term bursts of the course, and a fairly constant level.

– Well, is it possible not to weaken, but on the contrary, to strengthen the ruble in the short term and under what conditions?

– And this option cannot be ruled out, since the drivers of the course movement are multidirectional and extremely unstable. The ruble is able to strengthen if the factors working for it turn out to be stronger than those that act to weaken it.

– Do the actions of the financial authorities influence the current course of action, which ones and how?

– The actions of the economic authorities can significantly affect the exchange rate. However, the measures of such influence, their expediency and even direction remain the subject of discussion in the government. In particular, the recent discussion of the applicability of additional administrative restrictions in the currency sphere between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. These departments in many respects have different tasks, often contradicting each other. For the Central Bank, a stable ruble is more important, limiting inflation. It is important for the Ministry of Finance to fill the budget, including through the relative weakening of the ruble. So, the outcome of departmental battles is also a factor influencing the exchange rate.

– And finally – your exchange rate forecast for September and until the end of the year.

– It is most likely that if there are no force majeure circumstances, the rate will remain in the current range of 92-101 rubles per dollar.