The dollar exchange rate flew at the auction to 92 rubles

On its final day, July, like a baton, said hello to August in the form of the dollar: at the auction, it soared to 92 rubles, the official rate for tomorrow is 90.9783. In truth, we did not expect such volatility from our national currency. Even Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov considered it necessary to comment on what is happening in the foreign exchange market.

According to the minister, the next weakening of the national currency is associated with the country’s trade balance, that is, the inflow and outflow of foreign currency to Russia. This proportion is not in favor of the ruble.

Some analysts believe that the ruble has also faltered due to the fact that huge amounts of dollars and euros are being exported from the country as a result of the sale of foreign business. However, Anton Siluanov denies this factor – since earlier the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank agreed among themselves that the export of currency from Russia should not exceed $ 1 billion per month. And such a volume is not at all critical for the foreign exchange market.

Even summer interfered with our financial system. After all, this is a vacation period, and many Russians still do not deny themselves anything. They go abroad and need foreign currency.

In general, the beginning of August does not bode well for our currency market.

What is our government doing wrong to stop the fall of the ruble? After all, for the citizens of the country, this dynamics carries an increase in inflation and, accordingly, threatens to increase consumer prices.

– The reasons for the weakening of the ruble are obvious, they are on the surface, – explains financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. – As a result of the sanctions imposed after the start of the NWO, we sell less oil in dollars. According to experts, only about 33%, and the remaining volumes are in the national currencies of friendly states…

– Some analysts say that such an exchange rate of the ruble, for 90, is beneficial for the government – in terms of plugging holes in the deficit budget.

– Probably so. We just have to watch and wait – when the representatives of the monetary authorities will speak out in support of the ruble. As long as they are silent, it means that everything suits them.

– What can they do?

– Let’s remember 2020, the coronavirus pandemic. When our ruble was approaching the 80+ mark, the Central Bank announced foreign exchange interventions, the regulator did not like the weaker rate. Or a very recent story: February-March last year, when the exchange rate fell to 120 rubles. To stop the collapse, exporters were obliged to sell the lion’s share of the currency to the state, they introduced a commission for the purchase of currency – 20 or 25%. And so on. It was a signal for a reversal, for keeping the ruble exchange rate.

Now such signals are neither seen nor heard. Everyone is only engaged in justifying the causes of the current fall.

And to say “stop”, a statement from the Central Bank is enough, and the foreign exchange market would immediately react to it. By and large, there are almost no non-residents left in Russia, only Russian players. And it is enough for the regulator to give them a hint – and the game to lower the exchange rate will stop.

– Will an increase in the key rate affect the ruble exchange rate?

– Neither I nor my colleagues understand why she was raised like that. Earlier, the Central Bank claimed that the contribution of the ruble exchange rate to general inflation is 5-7%. True, he recently admitted that he makes a significant contribution to inflation. But now, with such an exchange rate of the national currency, inflation cannot be stopped by raising the key rate.

– What are the prospects for the ruble?

– If it continues to fall, then at some stage it will, of course, be stopped. In my opinion, there is a risk to its further decrease. But I would not recommend buying currency at such a rate, assuming that it can fly over 120.

– Your forecast: the best and worst exchange rate of the ruble?

– It is very difficult to predict its further movement. In the context of geopolitical risks, this is impossible. As much as possible, our ruble can strengthen to the level of 85-87 per dollar. But just like that, out of the blue, it will not be strengthened. Special measures are needed on the part of the monetary authorities.

– And, on the contrary, can fall into the abyss?

– There are no such prerequisites. If only to repeat the spring record of 2022. But this is in the case of another geopolitical negative.