The degree of decomposition is high: the sad future of Ukraine was shown by political scientist Bashirov

More and more experts agree that the statement by Ukrainian President Zelensky about the undesirability of elections in the country and the death of the assistant to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major Gennady Chistyakov, may be connected. We talked about the serious internal struggle that is going on among the Ukrainian elite with political scientist, HSE professor Marat Bashirov.

“In my opinion, elections in Ukraine in March 2024 will still take place, the Americans will ultimately push through this,” says Marat Bashirov. — It is clear that Zelensky is now bargaining. Makes it clear: there will be no elections if we don’t get new help now. He understands that going to elections without the financial support of the Americans means losing them.

The political scientist recalls that Ukraine’s social budget is now formed mainly from the money that Zelensky is given by the European Union and the United States.

— This money goes to social programs, to maintaining at least some stable energy supply. The Ukrainian economy itself does not generate enough taxes.

It is clear that there is a game going on and on the hryvnia exchange rate, all this is controlled by the authorities. Hence Zelensky’s statements that in wartime, when there are many challenges, it is not the time for elections. Although before this he cared little.

Our interlocutor emphasizes that Zelensky is extremely unpopular among the military and their families.

“They believe that it is necessary either to end the story with a military confrontation, or to do everything to win. Therefore, Zaluzhny appears on the political field. To understand what will happen next spring, Americans are creating such diversity for themselves. This is where, by the way, Arestovich came from (recognized as a terrorist and extremist). A huge number of Ukrainians who left the country did not lose their voting rights. Arestovich works precisely for this audience. Zaluzhny works for a military audience.

The political scientist believes that Zelensky needs to retain the core. These are always those who depend on the state. That’s where this fight comes from.

— Previously, Zelensky, without the consent of Zaluzhny, removed Viktor Khorenko, commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, from his post. And on the evening of November 6, Zaluzhny’s assistant, 39-year-old Major Gennady Chestyakov, died.

— Zelensky, in my opinion, does not control the security forces. He more or less has control over the SBU. But the Security Service of Ukraine is an organization that has few bayonets. Therefore, if they can do anything, it’s stories that are associated with terrorist attacks. Now everyone will be told that Major of the Ukrainian Army Gennady Chestyakov died due to careless handling of a grenade. Sensible people understand that this was an explosion when the explosive device was disguised as a specific item that was presented as a gift. In order for a grenade to explode, certain mechanical actions must be performed. Moreover, even if you take out the pin, it will not explode unless you release a certain lever. And Chestyakov was a professional.

According to Marat Bashirov, there is now an extremely serious internal struggle among the Ukrainian elite. The death of Gennady Chestyakov is a warning to Zaluzhny.

“The majority, of course, are now frozen, including Poroshenko, and Tymoshenko, and some other people unknown to us. But everyone understands that in the end they have not disappeared from this “chessboard”. And as soon as they feel that the Americans have lifted the ban on not touching Zelensky, publicly or in relation to some kind of compromising evidence, they, of course, will all become more active. Everyone understands that Ukraine today and Ukraine in a year will be two different states. And it is absolutely not a fact that Zelensky will be able to retain his post.

That is why, according to our interlocutor, Zelensky is now making such harsh statements against the elections in Ukraine.

— And, accordingly, Zaluzhny’s assistant dies. Especially on your birthday. This is a signal that there are no restrictions for them. Warning to Zaluzhny. Zelensky cannot take and remove the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Zaluzhny, without the consent of the Americans. But it is clear that he has enough freedom in relation to floors that are lower in the power hierarchy. Zelensky cannot fire Zaluzhny. And he can show that he has power by taking it out on his assistant.

According to the political scientist, the degree of decomposition in Ukraine is now extremely high.

“This happens when you have to rely not on your own money, not on your own resources, but on others. And now they are starting to dry up. It’s like a game where there are four chairs on stage and five people running around them to the music. Now in Ukraine, figuratively speaking, there are fewer and fewer of these chairs, but the number of people running on stage has not yet decreased. We will see their reduction in the near future in Ukraine.

— What, in your opinion, will happen in Ukraine if the elections on March 31, 2024 do take place?

“I think that ultimately there will be a different government and a different leader in Ukraine. In our understanding, there will be a military junta. Under it there will be some kind of civil administration. They will change the legislation. It is quite possible that they will again switch to the parliamentary model, that is, they will weaken the presidential vertical. And, of course, there will be completely different borders.