The currency will be protected by over-the-counter transactions – Kommersant FM
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The Moscow Exchange has prepared a scenario in the event of American sanctions being introduced against it. If this happens, official exchange rates can be determined on the basis of over-the-counter transactions, Igor Marich, a representative of the site, told reporters. He noted that the Moscow Exchange has carried out the necessary work with clients, so the market “has an understanding” of the situation. At the same time, the scenario of a complete stop in currency trading is still considered the most negative. How will this affect the market? And what will happen to the assets of private investors? Vladislav Viktorov sorted it out.
The market has been preparing for sanctions against the National Clearing Center, through which all foreign exchange transactions pass, since the fall of 2022. Before this, the National Settlement Depository, which is also part of the Moscow Exchange group, fell under American restrictions.
And everyone expected that NCC would then join the black list. But that did not happen. But in November, the St. Petersburg exchange was added to the SDN list, which is why the risks for the Moscow site and all its structures increased noticeably. If they are implemented, then it will be possible to forget about currency trading, although options will still remain, notes Managing Director of Ivolga Capital Investment Company Dmitry Alexandrov:
“The key center for working with hostile instruments is now the NCC. The currency that is stored in its accounts, and the trading infrastructure in general, all this may be suspended if blocking sanctions are imposed on NCC. The solution may be to switch to trading currencies through over-the-counter systems, that is, directly between banks or other participants.”
The Moscow Exchange stated that they had foreseen such a scenario and were ready to switch to over-the-counter currency trading. In addition, recently transactions with the dollar have not played such a role as before, say representatives of the site.
According to the Central Bank’s calculations, if at the beginning of 2022 its share was at the level of 96%, then in September it dropped to 17%. Therefore, the regulator has already developed a procedure for determining official exchange rates. But for the market this will literally be a rollback to the 90s, says Alexander Orlov, managing director of Arbat Capital:
“The main risk is that there is no central counterparty who plays the role of guarantor of the completion of the transaction. For example, if the counterparty bank fails, then the entire transaction will be burned. It is clear that pricing will also not be so transparent.
First of all, this will hit individuals who have somehow tried to trade currencies on the exchange. And, probably, it will further increase the role of the off-white cash market.”
What will happen to the funds of private traders who trade through brokers is also unclear. The experience of St. Petersburg Exchange shows that it is not easy to return currency: the platform, having fallen under sanctions, managed to gain access to only a third of client dollars, and even those have not yet been credited to investors’ accounts. Theoretically, it will be possible to seek a return using special licenses or prepare for forced conversion, independent economic expert Andrei Barkhota does not rule out:
“About a year ago, owners of new foreign currency deposits could receive principal and interest only in rubles. Or they were given currency that could be converted after waiting for a good exchange rate. This mechanism can also be used.
The trouble is that this same course does not suit everyone. Few people intended to use this currency, for example, to purchase imported machinery and equipment. Typically, this is simply a speculative motive.
Fixing the exchange rate is, of course, an infringement on the rights of investors, but at least most of the funds can be returned.”
By the way, back in January, the Central Bank recommended that brokers provide for the possibility of forced conversion in contracts with clients. However, experts say there is a less painful scenario. The regulator could recapitalize sites for the amount of frozen assets in the form of special loans. But nothing is known about whether anyone is considering such an option.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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